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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Bob who wrote (3508)	11/16/1997 12:16:00 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 10921

RW, "Mr. Fleming is cautious; I don't know his track record, but can't find anything to argue about in his analysis." Fleming's recent track record is superb. As noted in the report, he turned bearish on the group in August right near the peak. I do not know whether he timed his purchases as astutely as Cary. Minor, inconsequential point: Fleming's notion of geography is different from mine: He said, "The accepted model for the industry breaks down sales in the following regions: US - 30%, Japan - 30%, all other SE Asia countries - 30%, and Europe- 10%. That puts 60% of all equipment sales in the SE Asian region." I think of Japan as being in East Asia, not S.E. Asia. Of more substance is Fleming's argument that 300mm transition continues to be quite costly for semi-equips, while they will not see substantial payoffs generated from this R&D until 20002 time frame. He sees this transition as taking longer than most and as lacking in sponsorship. On this point, I think Fleming's cautionary note should be tempered by Darin's well reasoned game-theoretic approach at techstocks.com, which suggests that it would be unwise for semis to trumpet their strategic moves toward 300mm technology. So maybe the transition is doing a bit better than Fleming expects. All in all, I'd say that Cary's buy discipline has been excellent, as has Fleming's sell discipline. Next move is Cary's. Cary's tentative expectation that AMAT may be a trading sardine in the 35-45 range, however, is not consistent with its volatile history. But everything could change after Nov. 20. SC