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Soggy spring is putting Hoosier crop in jeopardy
Wet spring prevents farmers from planting; losses could reach $1B
10:01 PM, May. 18, 2011 Written by Bruce C. Smith
The wettest spring in a century has agriculture experts forecasting a potentially staggering loss to the state's precious corn crop.
Typically, Hoosier farmers would have planted two-thirds of the state's corn crop by now, but this year, just 29 percent of the crop is in the ground -- a scenario that agriculture experts say could mean a billion-dollar loss.
"The five-year average is that farmers in Indiana have 66 percent of the corn planted by May 15, so this year is at least 50 percent behind," said Jeff Hamlin, director of agronomic research for Weatherbill Insurance Co.
Purdue University and the U.S. Department of Agriculture had projected this year's corn crop in Indiana would exceed more than 1.1 billion bushels and be worth $7 billion to $8 billion.
But that was before Indiana's seemingly endless April showers.
An average 9.22 inches fell last month over the state, making it the rainiest April since 1895. Neighboring Illinois and Ohio also notched rainfall records for the century.
"We've calculated the lost yield in Indiana this year will be between 137 and 203 million bushels of corn," Hamlin said. "Assuming it would have sold around $7 a bushel, that's a loss between approximately $960 million and $1.42 billion for Indiana farmers."
What that means for corn prices at the grocery store is still unclear, but the impact already is being felt elsewhere. Private crop and weather insurance companies are already paying millions of dollars to U.S. farmers for projected losses.
And, with grain prices on the Chicago Board of Trade at very high levels, this would be a bad year for farmers to suffer a subpar crop.
Farmers usually want to have all the corn planted by the first week in June, and soybeans a little later.
But there's nothing usual about this year. Just ask Johnson County farmer Chris Hendricks.
He plants about 1,200 acres near Franklin, half in corn and half in soybeans. Instead of working in the fields this week, he's tending to other farm chores indoors, out of the rain.
"This year, I don't have anything planted yet," he said. "Every time we get close to being able to plant, the next thing you know it's raining again."
Hendricks said the cutoff date to plant corn is around the first of June, but that's primarily because crop insurance coverage begins to drop after that point.
"I have every intention of planting all of my corn acres," he said, "but we'll see what Mother Nature says."
When Hendricks needs a little optimism, he recalls what his grandfather once told him.
"He said there have been years that planting was late, but he always got it done. I always keep that in mind, when I might be thinking the worst."
Hendricks and his fellow Hoosier farmers can blame their misfortunes on the La Niña weather pattern that produced this wicked weather.
Five months of rainless, hot drought last summer and fall -- the same weather that killed many lawns -- have been followed by a record wet spring this year. They are hallmarks of La Niña, which is caused by a slight cooling of vast areas of the Pacific Ocean, according to Ken Scheeringa, the associate state climatologist for Indiana.
The Pacific has to cool by only a degree or two to trigger the unusual weather pattern over the U.S.
"La Niña has been a controlling factor. But there are signs that it is dying out, and the effects should gradually disappear in a month," he said. "We'll still have some seasonal rains through May and June, but not the continuous, torrential downpours."
He added, "For the farmers, this weather will gradually improve this summer."
That would be welcome news for waterlogged parts of the state, particularly Southern Indiana.
Knox County farmer Don Villwock plants several thousand acres in white corn, soybeans and popcorn each year. He is also president of the Indiana Farm Bureau and Indiana Farm Bureau Insurance Co., giving him a unique perspective on the situation.
"The impact of this wet weather is a little regional around the state, worse in the southern counties," Villwock said. "I'm near Vincennes, where our area is struggling because we have the Wabash and White rivers coming together. Some flooding is prevalent.
"On our farm, we are about 25 percent (planted) with corn, but it is going very slowly. We can only get out in the fields about one day a week. Two days is a really good week."
Still, Villwock said there is time to catch up and recover -- if the rain stays away.
"Ten to 15 days," he said, "would be enough for most of them, when the ground conditions allow."
USDA figures show how quickly Hoosier farmers can recover, given a chance.
The estimates from May 9 were that just 4 percent of Indiana's corn was planted. But after a few days without rain, 29 percent was reportedly in the ground, and tractors were working the fields in drier corners of the state.
The added sting for corn farmers is that if they could just get their corn in the ground, this might be a big year.
"Commodity prices are at records," Villwock said. "You want high prices and high yields in the same year when there have been failures or reductions in other parts of the world."
And Villwock quickly ticks off the various scenarios that should have helped Hoosier farmers: wet weather in Australia, floods in South America and a Russian embargo on exports of grain last year.
"The world grain stocks," he said, "are at the second-lowest levels in history."
Now, he and other farmers can only hope that La Niña doesn't wash away that opportunity.
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