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Biotech / Medical : Biomatrix (BXM) Looking Great -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (188)	11/16/1997 11:27:00 AM
From: John McCarthy	Respond to of 569

THC - You ask tough questions. Here goes nothing ... BIOX (1) All the TA signs on BIOX are bad. (2) There is at least 1 (maybe more) good TA'ers on SI that are following BIOX and know they may be looking at a short opportunity down to the 28.50 level. (3) I live by Revenue and Earnings growth, but I always pay attention to TA - i.e. I respect it. (4) The ONLY point of my message was to notify my fellow threaders to this possibility if their portfolio was in part on margin. My real message was:AT ALL COSTS PROTECT YOUR OWNERSHIP IN BIOX - and adjust the rest of your portfolio accordingly. Why? Because by 3rd Q98, if my P&L holds, we are looking at $60.00 to $100.00 share, and the then present PE ratio won't matter. Everyone will be looking at the overall size of the market SYNVISC is selling into and the subsequent growth rates into the next millenium (sp?). Add to that a stock split, Shi* its going to be wonderful. I grant you, to varying degrees we all go down if the market goes down, but if you invest - and there is a subsequent crisis in Asian markets - BIOX becomes a safe haven - if there is a stock split and subsequent higher float. Now back down to earth .... (5) If a short attack comes, its over by 4th qtr. earnings report. See my Dec. P&L. No short can fight +1.80 this year and +2.20 next year. Again, the # of shares outstanding becomes an issue to some funds that will want to buy in. (6) I was shocked at Friday's volume. 13,000 shares. That is a STUNNINGLY low number. <BG> Shorts would have to tread lightly on that kind of volume. Note: I am not talking about TRADERS. (7) If BIOX went to 28.00 I would ask BIOX mgt. to seriously consider buying 100/200 (000) shares. It would stir things up. And ONLY the shorts would get killed. ANIK (1) As you know, I am obstinate and stupid. I still have big $$$ in NPRO and am currently getting killed. Nonetheless, I can't let it go. I hate BMY. If I wasn't in this dumb phase of mine, ANIK - it seems to me - is a GREAT BUY. Your risks are (1) FDA approval (2) AHP has at most a 6 month lead. What is most important is PLEASE go back to my quarterly P&L. For all of 1998 I am projecting a PENATRATION RATE of SYNVISC of only 1.93% - and they earn almost $70 mil. in revenues. All things being equal - DITTO for ANIK. DEPO (1) I have been long ( less than 2,000 shares ) at about 17/18 share. (2) To my mind, this a done deal. (3) Remember in this kind of market (Asian turmoil) if you don't have EARNINGS - YOU SUCK. I don't know at what point of 1998, their EPS turns +. Regards, John

To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (188)	11/16/1997 12:35:00 PM
From: John McCarthy	Respond to of 569

Pentetration Rate % THC FYI - Please note the Penetration Rate % below: =========================================== Major P&L Assumptions: ------------------------------------------- Synvisc (USA) Revenues :Distributor:(AHP) =========================================== Annual AHP @ Retail $135,000,000 Annual Price (2 Treatments/yr) 1,000 BIOX % AHP .35 BIOX $ Revenues $47,250,000 Notes: 1 treatment = $500 (3 injections of Synvisc) 1 treatment = Lasts 6 months =========================================== AHP Sales Effort: =========================================== A - Total Osteoarthritis Population 15,600,000 B - Total Target Patient Population 7,000,000 C - 1998 Patients Treated 135,000 D - 1998 PENETRATION RATE (C/B) 1.93% ------------------------------------------------------------------- Biomatrix (BIOX) - 1998 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1998 =================================================================== Pr Loc Dist ------------------------------------------------------------------- Sy3 USA (AHP) 8,000 10,000 13,000 16,000 47,000 Sy3 NON-USA (AHP) 500 800 1,200 1,600 4,100 Sy3 France (Boe Ing) 300 300 300 300 1,200 Sy3 Canada (RPR) 400 400 400 400 1,600 Sy3 Sweden (Roche) 200 200 200 200 800 Sy3 Isr./FE (Bayer AG) 100 100 100 100 400 Sy3 Italy (Recdati) 75 75 75 75 300 Sy1 England (Biox) 25 50 200 200 475 Sy1 China (Biox) 25 50 100 100 275 Sy1 Norway (Biox) 1 1 1 1 4 Sy1 Finland (Biox) 1 1 1 1 4 Sy1 Switzer (Biox) 1 1 1 1 4 Hf USA (Collagen) 0 700 700 700 2,100 Hf NON-USA (Collagen) 400 400 400 400 1,600 Hs ITAL (Far Farm) 30 30 30 30 120 Other (Biox) 200 200 200 200 800 -------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Total Product Sales 10,258 13,308 16,908 20,308 60,782 -------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Memo:Seq. $ 3,050 3,600 3,400 Memo:Seq. % N/A 29% 27% 20% Memo:97 - $ 1,902 1,841 1,754 N/A Memo:Yr/Yr % 439% 623% 864% N/A -------------------- Milestone Fees -------------------- AHP (from BIOX 10-Q) 0 0 0 6,000 6,000 Bayer AG 0 0 1,000 1,000 2,000 Boehringer Ingelheim 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 4,000 Collagen-Hylaform USA 0 5,000 0 0 5,000 -------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Total Fees 1,000 6,000 2,000 8,000 17,000 -------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Total Net Revenues 11,258 19,308 18,908 28,308 77,782 ================== ====== ======= ======= ======= ======= Please note that in my last note to you - I made a mistake. Product sales at 1.93% are $47.0 mil. NOT the $70.0 I spoke of. Regards, John