To: Fred Weiss who wrote (3980 ) 11/16/1997 2:01:00 PM From: Jenna Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 120523
Tradrspud..Lots of things can happen and the technicals are the tracks left by the market reacting to fundamentals and speculation. I think this sentence is replete with insight and profundity. As someone that's been tracking market's reaction to earnings since April 1997, I would not endeavor to make any future earnings plays without studying those 'tracks' What you have seen in KLIC I have seen in CHSE, ZBRA, TSEMF, JBIL. Companies with great news, good fundamentals 3 digit earnings but have gone south on earnings, usually after a downgrade by analysts or after a short run up in prices.. This however, has not happened in QCOM, PWAV,TKLC,AEIS,QMDC,YURI,SEBL,CTXS,ORBKF,MCRS and MCRL... Why? The answer to this questions lies in technical analysis more than in news, fundamentals or anything else.. Coming up with a definitive answer that works every time would catapult me into great riches and thus far I have not come up with the formula...With the help of others like Tradrspud,last, AT, Joe, Raven, Lou, Gonch, etc. we could perhaps make some small gains in that search This week I have been very successful in playing the earnings only because technical analysis has played a much more important role in my selections than previously. When I now choose a play it is after rigorous back-testing and watching the company's reaction to earnings, news, market climate etc... in the past 3-4 quarters. I watch the patterns and look for support and resistance trends, breakout from a base, accumulation/distribution and cash flow, DMI and CCI.. QCOM fit the bill in the last week as KLIC did not. In fact, sometimes it is so hard to predict the effects of news, earnings etc, that I've left the large cap/technology sector behind and have based future earnings plays more on smaller tech companies and sectors that are wholly in favor and whose price actions have been more indicative of STABILITY than rapid rises and falls.