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Microcap & Penny Stocks : VLVT (was CSMA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steven Durrington who wrote (531)	11/16/1997 12:51:00 PM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11708

Just kicking some numbers around, looking forward. These are very, very conservative but you fundamental types out there might like them. Ad Hatters --2 million sales(cost @$.50, sold to distributors@ $1.50) will yield 2.0MM earnings Franco's hole--at just 1000 BBL/day for but SIX months with $16.00 per BBL earnings($20/BBL revenue) will yield 2.0 MM earnings Assume oil/gas and LPS (financial outfit) are merely covering G&A and Overhead; assume further that CSMA interest in ERHC is not accretive to earnings directly. We have $4,000,000 earnings/15,600,000 shares=$.256 EPS Now, since there are several hundred million cars and even gobs more of rooms in offices/homes, and the fact that AdHatters has barely pierced market penetration, significant growth lies ahead. Similarly, since 50KBBL per day of Class V are dumped now and will be legislated for Franco's hole, significant growth also lies ahead. Great interest rates and Picken's boys ensures growth in LPS and COG respectively. So.....can we not assume a growth rate on the order of 50 % per year in Earnings??? Hmmm? PEG, which is P/E ratio divided by Growth Rate (%) is averaging over 1.5 for US stocks. I'll be ultra conservative and assign a PEG of only 1.0. In that case, CSMA is allowed a P/E of 50. (Don't laugh, Netscape's P/E hit over 200 last year and before that it was NEGATIVE!!). Given a P/E of 50, and using forward earnings of $.256/share,we obtain a stock price of $12.80. AND THAT ASSUMES FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE EARNINGS, MODEST GROWTH RATE FROM THESE CONSERVATIVE EARNINGS, AND BELOW MARKET PEG VALUE !!! Hey, that's pretty good. Have I overlooked something? I admit I love Coconino, so maybe I'm a little biased. No, no , every estimate I used was on the modest side, I'm sure. Just one man's opinion. Plug in different estimates and calculate your own. TraderGreg