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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (11221)	11/16/1997 11:59:00 AM
From: CYBERKEN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

Henry: What is your est. re-timing of announcement of the Lilly drug which Ligand gets from the recent deal? Will they take the entire 90 days before disclosing which drug? If so, do you think there is some advantage to that, or will Ligand just want to maximize the research time before making a final choice? I would estimate a pop in the stock when (or right before) the announcement. TIA

To: Henry Niman who wrote (11221)	11/16/1997 12:54:00 PM
From: Zeuspaul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Ligand stock analysis from a layman's point of view using a stock chart and no TA rules. Pre 1995 appears to be a different phase in the growth of the company so I ignore it. I choose a value of $7.50 in January 1995 at about the time the volume starts to pick up. I choose a growth rate of 25 percent, which seems to balance the highs and lows. I get the following: January 1998 $14.65 January 1999 $18.31 January 2001 $22.89 January 2002 $28.81 January 2003 $35.76 January 2004 $55.88 January 2005 $69.85 January 2006 $87.31 Observations The stock rarely trades near this value. I don't see a trend in January. January 1995 it went down, January 1996 up and January 1997 down. The high low cycles seem to vacillate around a two month time frame +/- a bunch In at 14 and out at 16 might work in this time frame as 14 is below this long term trend line and 16 is above. The vacillations are much greater than this small range. Buying under the $14.65 for the long term makes more sense to me as it would yield greater than 25 percent. The trend line needs an inflection point as the $87.31 in January 2006 seems a bit low as it would result in a PE of six if the projection of $14.xx is on target. The inflection would likely be near the time that Ligand becomes profitable. The above analysis is strictly amateur and IMO conservative.