Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (52212)	5/26/2011 5:21:08 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95383

Just How Low Can Cisco Go? seekingalpha.com ...lowers its Q4 revenue guidance to 'relatively flat' from 'flat to up 2%,' and expects Q4 gross margin to be slightly lower than in Q3. "We also expect that operating income, net income, and earnings per share for [Q4 2011] will likely continue to decline on a year-over-year basis."... 4 gap-downs in a row, after quarterly reports:

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (52212)	6/11/2011 3:36:13 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95383

Average Household Still Needs to Trim $26,172 in Debt: $26,172: Amount of debt the average U.S. household would need to cut to bring balance sheets back to 1990s levels. Americans have made progress in paring back their debt, partly by cutting their credit-card use and mostly by walking away from mortgages and other loans. But they still have a long way to go. blogs.wsj.com This is on-topic, because: 1. Chips are mostly used in consumer (and business) discretionary items. When consumers cut spending, they stop buying new cellphones; when companies need to cut spending, they defer replacing their PCs. You have to buy food and gasoline, but you don't really need the latest smartphone. 2. Discretionary spending can't rebound, until debt levels revert to the historical mean. Since wages aren't going up, debt reduction will mostly happen via defaults. 3. This is going to take many years. It won't be fixed, this year or next. 4. Any future growth, for chip (and chip-equip) companies, has to come from China, Brazil, and India. It won't come from the U.S., Europe, or Japan, all of whom have huge unresolved LT debt problems. 5. Those growth areas are all experiencing unacceptable inflation, and their central banks are all raising interest rates, tightening lending standards, cutting government spending, which they will continue till they have achieved the goal to killing inflation. It doesn't matter, that the Fed is still ultra-loose, because the U.S. is losing its position as the center of the world's economy. 6. Killing inflation always means killing discretionary spending. 7. Conclusion: Sell chips and chip-equips, consider shorting them, and don't buy them back till inflation is killed in China.