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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeS97707 who wrote (42839)	5/27/2011 2:21:11 PM
From: geoffrey Wren	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78673

I have taken a very small position in ASTC. I think Paul calls this a "tracking position.". You mention a large amount of cash (relative to market cap), which is good for liquidity. However, they have about the same amount of debt. Also their book value is mostly property plant and equipment which I suspect has little value in a stress sale position. So bottom line I do not see this as a strong Graham type of investment. But I have not studied it, and may be wrong about the property plant and equipment. What intrigues me is the potential for them to report large earnings relative to share price. Also since they have a humongous "accumulated earnings," it should mean they pay no taxes even if they start earning money. I saw on the Yahoo board some comment about the company being run by finance guys and not engineers. I consider that a very good thing. At any rate my impression now is that this is a trading investment. I see this as the sort of company that makes money, loses money, makes money, loses money, and eventually goes out of business, never having paid a dividend, sort of like an airline. The large accumulated deficit supports this view. At any rate, it seems a good chance to double, and if it does one can always sell half and never worry about a loss on the investment after that.

To: MikeS97707 who wrote (42839)	6/3/2011 2:06:29 PM
From: MikeS97707	Respond to of 78673

The ASTC CFO just purchased 30,000 shares of ASTC in the open market. That is on top of the 20,000 shares he purchased a few weeks ago. Did I mention that ASTC is my largest holding. :) yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com

To: MikeS97707 who wrote (42839)	7/21/2011 7:08:18 PM
From: MCsweet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78673

ASTC, With the recent drop to 0.94, I decided to look more closely at this one and follow up with MikeS97707. MikeS97707, any reason why the stock is down recently? Blues about the end of the space shuttle mission? Worries about possible cuts in government spending? Specific company news I don't know about? According to what I see in the filing, ASO made only $1,107 mil for the 9 months ended Mar 31, 2011, which is about $0.06 per share not $0.35 per share. My estimate for ASO profit for the 12 months ended Mar 31, 2011 is actually a little worse. So I am assuming you are using the June 30, 2010 to get the 0.35/share in earnings for ASO? If so, why is that more representative than the trailing twelve months, particularly if you are using it as a base 2012 earnings number to which you are going to add the earnings from the latest project??? Cash per share is nice, but they owe almost that much in a term note payable, so net cash is not that great. The stock still seems like a cheap option on the possibility they can make something out of their other business, but it seems to me that your numbers are overly optimistic unless I am missing something. Thanks, MC