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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rational who wrote (8146)	11/16/1997 5:15:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 18056

Sankar, to me current international monetary sitiation appears to be in a state of disarry. Too many complex variables all of which only cause uncertainity with regards to money-flows across international boarders and across competing financial instruments. From your practical and theoritical knowledge, please tell us if this bodes well for the US Stock market and the economy in general. What should a small invcestor do in these circumstances? Never mind, you have already addressed this in one of your earlier notes. techstocks.com -Mohan PS: On behalf of all the participants on this board, visible and invisible, very many thanks for sharing your thoughts and spending your time with us. Please continue to enlighten us with your knowledge and wisdom.

To: Rational who wrote (8146)	11/16/1997 5:29:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

If the Japanese government, or whoever holds them (banks, insurance companies) starts selling US Treasuries, who would they sell them to? What currency would they be exchanged for? If this happened, would not the Federal Reserve of the US start buying some of them, thereby increasing the US money supply? Or would the Fed just allow the value of the bonds to decrease and allow interest rates to rise to reflect this? The former case would tend to cause inflation and would also cause the dollar to drop, which would tend to hurt Japanese exports to the US. The latter case would hurt American exports as rising interest rates caused the dollar to rise. But the rising dollar would increase the value of treasuries against bonds in other currencies. My own belief is that the Japanese have just got to inflate their way out of their debt problems by simply creating money to cover at least a large part of the debts carried on the books of their banks and insurance companies. Unless they just want to dissolve the companies, declare them bankrupt, and sell their assets. That would sure put a definite end to the former real estate boom. Maybe an American could then buy a square inch of Tokyo for less than a thousand dollars. In any case, selling treasuries seems like a Catch 22 for Japan; to do so lowers the value of those assets. How much US Treasury paper do they hold, anyway? Just a lot of amateur questions and speculations.

To: Rational who wrote (8146)	11/16/1997 6:35:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Sankar, the yield curve is close to flatening out. Your sugestion is that it will actualy go to inverse, which to IMHO will predict recessionary enviroment, which more or less fit's my gut feelig. The anticipated recession will be DIFFERENT THIS TIME AS WE ARE IN A NEW ERA - which I sugest will mirror more or less Japan. Off topic but still on topic - any opnions on Nostradamus predictions?? or gemetria?? I am intrigued by his writings as a result of some accurate predictions and the present situation in the ME, were I do not see how the SADAM problem will be solved and how fundamentalistic Islam will dispear. As the US is in a EOMF situation The recent slaying of Americans in Pakistan are of substantial importance as Pakistan is considered as far I know, a US friend. As I see that you spend some of your adult life in India's industry I am curious as to your oppinion Thank you Haim