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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: molemania who wrote (3517)	11/16/1997 9:46:00 PM
From: hb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Dram prices have not firmed up (indicator of pc demand). This will crimp the growth of fabs (postpone new builds). Moving to 0.25 micron in production will increase die yields and the need to build new fab diminishes. On the top of this, the currency devaluation in korea, japan and far east will slow the payment schedule. Many analysts have lowered the money allocated to stock. Wild card: Japanese start withdrawing money from US treasuries to support their economy( which is in dumps). Overall, in a downtrend of intermediate nature, keeping both hands in the pocket may be the prudent thing to do (especially cases like amat)

To: molemania who wrote (3517)	11/16/1997 11:00:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10921

Dave, RE: "If, as you guess, any negatives that come out in AMAT's CC are already (for the most part) factored into the stock price, why will you wait until after the CC. Isn't the risk/reward ratio skewed towards reward? Won't you miss a big jump in share price (vs a relatively small drop in worse case scenario)." I suppose the operative word is "guess." The $35-45 range is not a "big jump" from the current price. I did not talk about a "worst case scenario" in my last post, but it would result in more than a "small drop." On the other hand, a "best case scenario" will result in a "big jump." The bottom line is that I am still long the AMAT I bought last year at an average cost of $16+ and I am long the other 6 semi-equips. I don't like to advise going against the market until prices fall to "no-brainer" levels. I don't think any traders pay attention to what I say, so I assume my audience is long term. Long termers have the luxury of patience. This means holding through and ignoring short term volatility, but it also allows for waiting until all the news is out before committing cash even if this means paying a little more. Cary