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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (52301)	6/4/2011 8:59:28 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95657

Looking at the weekly chart of the SOX some recent interim peaks and bottoms can be found. In this case the chart shows a peak at 4/23/10, about 13+ months ago, then a pullback to 9/10/10, then the strong rise to 2/18/11, and finally the pullback presently in process until Friday's close. The table below the chart shows how the individual stocks in the SOXM(minus ATHR) performed during each of these periods. The first downtrend from April to September shows most of the individual stocks losing well into the double digits. Only ALTR, BRCM, LLTC and XLNX avoided this fate. At the bottom line, the SOXM lost 19.8 percent and the SOX lost 20.9 percent. During the uptrend from September to February, only AMD failed to score a double digit gain while 3 of the stocks, CREE, LRCX, and SNDK gained over 50 percent. Bottom line the SOXM was up 42 percent and the SOX was up 48.9 percent. From February to the present, the market has been trending down again, particularly the SOXM and SOX, both down 11.2 percent. Only 3 stocks, ALTR, NSM and TSM are above water, with NSM in an ongoing buyout deal which provides the 57.7 percent gain. Most of the other stocks have double digit losses with some of the losses quite large. AMAT, CREE, MU, TER, and WFR are down over 20 percent. The last column shows the overall results from April to last Friday's close. Some big winners show up as well as big losers. A lot of averaging going on to have some rather small numbers at the bottom line. Ignoring the special NSM situation, ALTR is the big champion on the upside with a 71.7 percent gain. CREE is the big loser on the downside with a 48 percent loss. Overall, the SOXM is up 1.1 percent and the SOX is up 4.5 percent. This type of stock behavior shown in the chart and table happens over and over again as time progresses. The results of this evaluation, over a little more than a year, show the importance of picking the right stock and being on the right side of the market when it is going up and down. But of course, we all knew that. Now as individuals we need to continue the effort to pick the right stock(s) and be on the right side of the market. I would invite anyone looking at this thread to offer their ideas on market direction or stock picks for those stocks we follow. If we do this in a positive manner, respecting others opinions, maybe we can all do better in our investing returns. Right now we are in a flat to downtrending market over the past 15 weeks. How can we find the next bottom point as close as possible in order to benefit the most from the next up cycle? Also, what stock(s) will give the best performance on the upside?