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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (52305)	6/4/2011 10:42:45 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95663

Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (6/4/11) amateur-investor.net As I mentioned late last year since World War II every 3rd Year of a Presidential Term (Democrat or Republican) has seen the Dow have a positive return as shown in the table below. The time period I use is from November of the 2nd Year through August of the 3rd Year. The highest return was 41.8% from 1986-1987 while the lowest return was 5.7% from 1946-1947. Also notice all of the returns were 10% or more except for the 1946-1947 period. Currently the Dow based on Friday's close is up just over 9% from the closing price in late October so thus far the historical pattern continues to hold. Closing Closing % Price Price Gain Oct-42 114.1 Aug-43 136.60 19.72 Oct-46 169.2 Aug-47 178.90 5.73 Oct-50 225 Aug-51 270.30 20.13 Oct-54 352.1 Aug-55 468.20 32.97 Oct-58 543.2 Aug-59 664.60 22.35 Oct-62 589.8 Aug-63 729.30 23.65 Oct-66 807.1 Aug-67 901.30 11.67 Oct-70 755.6 Aug-71 898.10 18.86 Oct-74 665.5 Aug-75 835.30 25.51 Oct-78 792.5 Aug-79 887.60 12.00 Oct-82 991.7 Aug-83 1216.20 22.64 Oct-86 1877.7 Aug-87 2663.00 41.82 Oct-90 2442.3 Aug-91 3043.60 24.62 Oct-94 3908.1 Aug-95 4610.60 17.98 Oct-98 8592.1 Aug-99 10829.30 26.04 Oct-02 8397.03 Aug-03 9415.82 12.13 Oct-06 12080.73 Aug-07 13357.74 10.57 Oct-10 11118.49 Aug-11 ? ? Meanwhile for those that follow my daily updates each week I have mentioned there is a key support level to watch in the S&P 500 near the 1295 area. 1295 is roughly the 61.8% Retrace from 1249 to 1371 and acted as the Shoulders in association with the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. If the S&P 500 were to break solidly below the 1295 area this would dramatically increase the probability of a failed Inverse Head and Shoulders breakout which could lead to an eventual drop back to the 200 Day EMA (green line) at 1261 or the previous low at 1249. Notice how the Gold ETF (GLD) formed a larger Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern from 2008 through 2009. Once it broke above its Neckline it never dropped back below it on the 1st pullback (points B to C) after its initial breakout.

To: Gottfried who wrote (52305)	6/5/2011 1:45:23 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

Gottfried, Certainly the PE values, or more generally the valuations of many tech companies are not what they have been in the past. Probably a myriad of reasons why this is so, and we don't know when, or if, this situation will change. Personally, I don't see a near term change in the present situation. Just as an exercise, I took the five companies from the Seeking Alpha article and made a collage with the target prices from Credit Suisse and S&P. If we ever care to check once in awhile on the price progression(or not) of these stocks it will be relatively easy to do.