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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (635)	11/17/1997 10:13:00 AM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Steve - I tend to agree with ahhaha. It is like this: you are either a short term "quick buck" artist or you are trying to put together a moderately long-term investment. This is not for the quick buck artist. They are better off doing 30-day options on stocks that move wildly. I read the long article quoted by Harry Sharp (#626). If you read it carefully, you will find it says the following: 1) At Home is overvalued. 2) There are a lot of "over the phone wire" businesses competing with At Home. 3) There are 2 other "over the cable" companies competing with At Home. Of course the article is highly emotional and as down as you can get on ATHM. It builds up the competing services as if they were going to destroy ATHM overnight. Here are a few things to consider: 1) We have two methods: through the phone and over the cable. 2) Through the phone wires with compression will get you faster speed but I have never heard or read a knowledgeable analyst that says phone wires will work when you face the real demands of future traffic like real time interactive video. It stands to reason that there are limits to copper wire verses cable. Also, cable is right now carrying your TV programs at the same time - is copper going to do that? 3) There are two other cable competitors to ATHM. Time Warner and US West Media. OK, time to tally up the score: who has the most contracts to run their service over cable (ie rights to internet traffic)? ATHM has WAY more dominance than the other two. This is why everybody is so interested in ATHM. Also the cable operators like TCI own so much of the revenue from ATHM that it would be crazy to think of ever switching. 4) Revenue source. I am really tired of hearing analyst computing out the possible revenue as though the only money available to ATHM is from monthly $35 fees. This means there will be no home business traffic (ATHM is offering web hosting soon with about $100/mo minimum fee) and there will be no high speed access offered to businesses not on the cable line (ATHM offers @WORK which does this now but only has a small number of subscribers) and, of course, there will be no attempt to capitalize on interactive real-time conferencing, etc I looked at Zack's today and saw nothing but strong buys from their polling of analyists. In summary, if you want one of the best bets for the comming high bandwidth interactive digital communications market, ATHM has got to be one of the best and that is the reason so many people have bought up the stock. This is proven by the number of people that have bought the stock. The only person that should get out now is the instant quick buck artist.

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (635)	11/17/1997 10:34:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

The stock is trading on expectations, possibly great expectations. The fundamental position is a little like AOL rather than QDEK. QDEK didn't have the technology nor the product to justify their valuation. AOL has proven that they are a money machine even though they are the poorest ISP of size. They'll get their come-uppance. Eventually that will be a good shorting vehicle , but you have to wait for the price structure to evolve to the "right side" of the chart. But ATHM has incredible potential. They are way ahead of the competition. DSL is NOT competition. All you have to do is to sit at a wic loaded @Home pc, and you're sold. Forget about how low it will go. You don't know that. You buy. If it goes lower, don't buy more. You buy more if it goes up from where you bought it. This is quite contrary to Wall Street thinking. They "average down". I "average up". If it goes down, you wait until it adequately bases and then if there are not negative fundamental changes and there are positive changes and it starts up and you got some dough and you don't have a better candidate, you buy more. The greater the future potential the greater will be the current random fluctuations. Read volatility as an indication that you got a hold of a good horse. If you're going to take risk, take it. But most critical is to hold. That is hard work. Traders can't do that. They have no faith. Even false faith is better than none. Traders believe hope is your enemy. But hope is often all you got. Another point. Try to buy at "the top". It keeps you long. Then don't sell if the price struggles back up to your buy point. If you do you're falling into the public fear/greed syndrome and that is part of Wall Street. Wall Street means failure.