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Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tan Nguyen who wrote (2145)	11/17/1997 8:01:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9236

<<With splitterless ADSL, Aware doesn't have to count on RBOCs' responsiveness. Although, eventually (sooner than they think) RBOCs have to respond to cable>> I think that this is technological daydreaming, the kind of thing that keeps people holding, say, Apple or Cymer stock. It just doesn't account for the way companies do business. the BB's are run by people who are still having difficulty adjusting to a business in which they don't hold a monopoly and have to expand service into other areas, which some of senior management does not fully trust or understand. RBOC's can adopt other xDSL or none at all, do it when they please, etc. They are going to have to capitalize this in orders of magnitude of $1 billion. Remember, some of them hopped on ISDN. I live in an affluant part of a major city (Atlanta) and as of late 1997 the only POP service I can get is straight telephone! POTS!! Is it feasible for a modem at these speeds to be software upgradable to USB? Anybody know for sure? If so, it would certainly work. But I'm holding to my basic point. If USB isn't demonstrated and fully supported, the ROBC's are unlikely to spend their money on Aware's ASDL. Aware doesn't need to be right -- it needs to sell a carrier-wide system to ROBC's. I think all of the talk about how USB doesn't exist misses the point. The enormous capitalization required here has to be generating increasing revenues in five years. The telco's aren't going to spend another fortune building out a system that's going to be headed down in a few years. USB is the near future for a lot of consumer business, and they aren't going to want to install it without enormous assurances that it is going to be making money in a few years. Unless they are convinced that they can hold market share in internet connection, the BB's could easily sit on their hands or even just give the field to the cableco's etc., use the money to buy back stock or capitalize long distance service instead, wait for the next generation of HFC technology.