Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (52476)	6/19/2011 2:09:06 PM
From: Gottfried	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95618

"Apprenticed Investor: Lose the News" Barry Ritholtz 06/16/05 ritholtz.com tinyurl.com worth reading. Confirmed my prejudices. Has several charts showing headlines near market turning points.

To: robert b furman who wrote (52476)	6/19/2011 5:58:53 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95618

Hi Bob, I haven't thought about dividends one way or the other. I will look at the situation and try to see, what, if any, posting in a table makes sense. In general, as you and others well know, the days of the 3 and 4 baggers are mostly gone. Short term cyclical trading seems to be the name of the game in the 2000 decade and it looks like more of the same is in store for the 2010 decade. At the risk of stating and showing the obvious, long term charts of the SOX and SPX are shown along with a small table of values for each chart tabulating points in the past. Looking first at the longer term SPX chart, the "golden age" of the market was the decade of the 80's and 90's. All you had to do was put your money in, forget about it, and then "harvest" a nice big gain a few years later. And of course if you wanted a new car, boat, or house, you could siphon off a little of your gain along the way without any problem and just keep on making money on the remainder. The gain in the SPX from 1980 to 2000 was over 1100 percent - talk about your eleven baggers! My how things have changed since 2000. It has been 11 and 1/2 years and the SPX is at 1272, down 9 percent. And it is much more than that in inflation adjusted dollars. Now, lets look at the SOX. The SOX starts much later, but the general type of performance is the same. In Jan 95 the SOX was at 140 and Jan 00 was at 778 and then immediately went much higher to the 1200 area. Talk about making money - 5 and 10 baggers were the norm. Those were heady days, at least for those of us who remember. Then we all had to come back to reality as the SOX tumbled in a big hurry to much lower values. Over the past decade there have been some much smaller cycles as shown by the "wiggles" on the chart, the most recent, and one of the biggest from Nov 08 to the present, a gain of about 100 percent. However, the value today of 388 is about the same as it was in 1997, over 14 years ago. At the moment, IMO, more of the same performance as the past few years is in the cards for the foreseeable future. I certainly agree with you as to desirability of finding a way to make smaller, relatively low risk ways to make money in the present economic environment.

To: robert b furman who wrote (52476)	6/22/2011 10:50:43 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	4 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95618

Bob, Here are a couple of tables that show dividend and tangible Book Values for the Group and SOXM indices. I have not "double checked" all of the data, there may be some changes needed, but for the moment it is a start. There are not many stocks in the Group that pay dividends, COHU being 1 of the 4 stocks that do. The next column shows the percent yield. The next column shows the latest Tangible Book Value, and the last column shows the Book to Price Value in percent based on yesterday's(6/21) closing price. A very wide variation in those numbers. The next table shows the same information, but this time it is sorted by the last column. Both MU and WFR which are very out of favor now are selling at levels very close to TBV.