Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (52521)	6/23/2011 2:45:51 PM
From: Woody_Nickels	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95383

Wasn't VSEA acquired, not long ago? Woody

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (52521)	6/23/2011 3:17:23 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95383

SPX, SOX downside targets: Context: We are in a 1. secular bear since 2000 2. cyclical bull since early 2009 3. bull market correction (or possible end of cyclical bull) since early May SPX: Fell 17% in the mid-2010 correction. That correction saw a reverse Head-and-Shoulders, 50dma below 200dma, RSI hitting 30 several times, and VIX spiking to 48. A 17% correction from recent highs would take SPX from 1371 to 1138. So far, we've bounced twice at the 200dma. However, the 200dma didn't hold in mid-2010, and fundamentals are worse now: stock prices higher, oil price higher, but macro risks at least as bad. A double-dip recession now, is at least as possible as in mid-2010. SOX: Fell 24% in the mid-2010 correction. A 24% correction now would take us from 474 to 360. Those are (very approximately) my downside targets: SPX 1138, SOX 360. If I decide it's just a cyclical bull market correction, I'll cover shorts, and consider going long, when we approach those levels. I'd also like to see the VIX much higher, and higher volume. If I decide it's the end of the cyclical bull, I'll wait for new secular bear lows (SPX 667, SOX 168) If I'm wrong (always a possibility), I'll maintain my current position (mostly cash, two remaining shorts), till we get at least a 10% SPX correction. The sectors which I think are currently closest to a wash-out, with the worst sentiment (and therefore best values, and greatest LT upside potential) are solars (FSLR, YGE, TSL) and large-cap tech (INTC, CSCO, AMAT).

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (52521)	6/23/2011 4:58:54 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95383

interesting list and some of them are definitely much higher beta than others. From memory rather than quant analysis, AIXG and KLIC strike me as 2 of the highest beta on your list and CYMI, LRCX and KLAC at the lower beta end of the list. Have you established any price targets for buying in during the next downturn? i.e. Would you expect to pick up AIXG with a $3 handle and KLIC for less than a buck? Or have the fundamentals changed sufficiently that these companies are unlikely to revisit those prices should the next downturn be a normal cyclical one rather than a result of a global economic catastrophe. e.g. - EU fails miserably; and, Japan suffers another series of massive earthquakes; and, Terrorists strike a major blow against a major financial center. Ian