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To: THE ANT who wrote (75610)6/25/2011 1:13:47 AM
From: elmatador1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217942
 
Why many star students are dropping out of college
By April Dembosky in San Francisco
When 19-year-old Ben Yu decided to drop out of Harvard in the middle of his freshman year to launch a price-comparison website for travel gear, his mother could not understand.

“In China, during the Cultural Revolution, she was sent to the farms when she was in elementary school,” he said. “She never had an opportunity for an education of any kind.”

For Mr Yu, the choice to walk away from an Ivy League school was easy. “It seemed like it was unnecessarily postponing the future,” he said. “I realised there was no reason why I couldn’t pursue what I wanted to do entrepreneurially, now.”

In Silicon Valley, investors who are clamouring for a piece of the internet action are more than happy to help entrepreneurs like Mr Yu get started.

Peter Thiel, a prominent Silicon Valley investor, said the emphasis in US society on having a college degree has created “a bubble in education”, in which the professional value doesn’t match the $200,000 price tag. He is countering that by giving $100,000 each to 24 people under 20 to pursue an entrepreneurial idea in Silicon Valley instead of going to college

“We need more innovation,” he said. “There’s a tremendous cost to having the most talented people in society take on enormous debt, then take well-paying but dead-end jobs to service those loans for the next 15 to 20 years of their lives.”

Investors often prefer to have young founders at the helm of internet companies, because they grew up with the technology and are intimate with the young audiences many are targeting.

“The technology that young people use, it’s almost critical to have young people driving it,” said Andre Marquis, director of the entrepreneurship centre at the University of California at Berkeley. Three of his students dropped out last semester when they got funding to start a website that offers daily deals to students.

College dropouts and recent graduates also have ties to broad networks of other students, who have become prime targets in an increasingly tense talent war for engineers.

“I’m inclined to ask people to drop out,” said Jessica Mah, 19, founder of the money management site inDinero. Though Ms Mah was offered venture funding during her final year at UC Berkeley, she chose to graduate, in part to give herself more time to recruit her classmates. Now she is racing to hire more engineers and is offering summer internships to college students in hopes they will become employees, perhaps before they graduate.

Though small start-ups cannot offer huge salaries, they often promise a big chunk of equity. That prospect sometimes succeeds in luring students from school, as it did with several early employees at Facebook.

“If you have an opportunity to be an early employee, that’s justification to drop out,” said Aaron Levie, founder of Box, a document management company. He dropped out of the University of Southern California after billionaire Mark Cuban invested in his start-up. He now has 200 employees and says he’ll never go back to school: “God, no. I learnt so much in the process of building the company and there’s so much excitement. Receiving a B in advanced accounting wouldn’t do much more for me now.”

University officials defend the value of degrees, but acknowledge that schools struggle to provide the most relevant training to future entrepreneurs.

“Young people doing start-ups, they’ve got to juggle 20 things at a time, how to get financing, how to manage people, how to meet commitments,” said Joel Schindall, an engineering professor at MIT who believes the lack of these “soft skills” among engineers drives the talent war.

“There was not a shortage of engineers, but a shortage of the kind of engineer who can take the responsibility of doing the engineering and also follow through on the cost, getting it done on time, and making it well suited to what the customer needed,” he said.

Even if a start-up fails, the founder is not a failure, said Max Hodak, 21, who dropped out of Duke University to start an education company. The skills one learns at a start-up make any founder a desirable employee, he said. Mr Hodak was hired by another start up as was his co-founder, who also dropped out .

“People always say Bill Gates or Mark Zuckerberg are the exceptions,” said Mr Hodak. “The truth is, it’s way more common. You can be a dropout and not be famous, but still be really successful.”



To: THE ANT who wrote (75610)6/25/2011 1:23:50 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217942
 
U.S. would need to acquire gold to back up their USD and promise to redeem USD for gold.

This poses two problems one of availability of gold and another one of credibility.

First US would need to purchase gold to back the USD up. Gold is in short supply and would become even more so as the likes of TJ hog the metal.

US currency starts going down, as people will ask for more USD for the gold they have.

If US currency goes down, people trust in paper moneys vanish. They rush for physical assets: oil, food commodities, farmland, whose availability is also limited.

Let's say it works the conversion to a semi-gold standard:

There is a problem of credibility here. Second once biten twice shy.

People would not trust the USD and the promise that the US would redeem their USD for gold as they know Nixon renegaded in that promise.




To: THE ANT who wrote (75610)7/4/2011 8:35:39 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 217942
 
major build up of consumer debt at extremely high rates of interest, putting a significant cash flow burden on the repayment capacity of borrowers.

Since then, the situation has deteriorated further. Pressures are building in the Brazilian credit cycle.

consumer debt service burden, which stood at 24 per cent of disposable income in 2010, is now slated to rise to 28 per cent in 2011.

This compares with 16 per cent for an “overburdened” US consumer and a mid-single digit reading for other emerging markets such as China and India.

Brazil risks tumbling from boom to bust

By Paul Marshall and Amit Rajpal
Back in February, in an earlier Insight column, we highlighted the major build up of consumer debt at extremely high rates of interest, putting a significant cash flow burden on the repayment capacity of borrowers.

Since then, the situation has deteriorated further. Pressures are building in the Brazilian credit cycle.

The average rate of interest on consumer lending has jumped from 41 per cent in 2010 to 47 per cent most recently in May 2011. This rise from an already elevated level reflects the cumulative effect of tightening by the Brazilian central bank in order to contain inflation.

The consumer debt service burden, which stood at 24 per cent of disposable income in 2010, is now slated to rise to 28 per cent in 2011.

This compares with 16 per cent for an “overburdened” US consumer and a mid-single digit reading for other emerging markets such as China and India.

In short, the cash flow burden is astronomical and rising.

We calculate that the debt service burden for the so-called “middle class” in Brazil has now breached 50 per cent of disposable income, as high income earners have little need to borrow at rates which are punitive and most of the consumer credit is therefore being directed to the “middle class” for consumption.

The strain is already evident among the smaller banks, which are finding it difficult to access funding. The central bank has now rescued or taken over three banks in distress over the past six months.

Meanwhile, delinquencies in Brazil (defaults in excess of 15 days) have begun to move up rapidly, from 7.8 per cent to 9.1 per cent of total loans between December 2010 and May 2011. Delinquencies are now rising at a very hectic rate. They have risen at 23 per cent in the first five months of this year in absolute terms or at an annualised rate of 55 per cent.

This is troubling as credit indicators have deteriorated even as the economy has stayed strong and the unemployment rates are at a record low.

Normally credit indicators cyclically follow (read lag) the economic cycle. When they begin to deteriorate before any economic weakness it usually represents a structural problem relating to underlying cash flow or underwriting weakness in the quality of credit – Brazil has both problems.

Over time as the economy weakens this is only likely to exacerbate weakness in the domestic credit cycle and could potentially create a fully fledged credit crisis.

Ultimately, Brazil needs to restructure the way it dispenses credit to consumers. More of the lending needs to be collateralised (ie housing related).

And the infrastructure to support credit expansion needs to be put in place, via a credit bureau which is able to share “positive” data (before a customer default) across the industry.

More strategically, we believe the country has to build a higher savings rate and reduce cross subsidies to bring down the cost of credit to levels which are less punitive than currently both in nominal and, more importantly, real (adjusted for inflation) terms.

Brazil has a national savings rate which was 17 per cent for 2010 (this includes savings by consumers, corporates and the government). This compares with a developed market average of 19 per cent and is significantly lower than an emerging market average of 32 per cent.

Hence, if Brazil is to grow to its “potential”, it has to build a reasonable stock of savings which allows it to invest as the economy grows without creating bottlenecks and inflationary pressures that exist as a growth constraint today.

These three basic foundations (ie the right level of collateralisation, the right infrastructure to support credit extension and the right level of lending rates) need to be in place to create a self-sustaining positive cycle.

Without these buildings blocks we are afraid that Brazil will be exposed to significant boom-bust cycles. Unfortunately, we are currently at risk of transitioning from a boom to bust.

The markets seem to be taking cognisance of these factors gradually with the Bovespa index now down 10 per cent since the start of 2011 in local currency terms, making it among the worst performing markets globally.

Despite this, most analysts and investors still seem to be sanguine about the prospects for Brazil. The disconnect will be answered one way or the other before the end of this year.

Paul Marshall is chief investment officer at Marshall Wace and co-manager of the Eureka Fund. The piece was co-authored by Amit Rajpal, portfolio manager of MW Global Financials Funds