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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (75661)	6/25/2011 3:19:20 PM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219802

Notice the surprising sharp sell off in Gold from that 1550 resistance again & flight to the "relative safety" of the $USD which rose on friday ? Relative safety of the $USD has an odd ring to it but think that's what traders have determined near term since the dollar takes on more appeal as we near the closing of QE2 and Euro faced with the debt situation . One hypothesis below: (We must all learn to be forex traders, pips n piigs!) " US Dollar Appeal and Forecast Improve as QE2 Comes to An End " dailyfx.com The US Dollar (Ticker: USDOLLAR) saw an impressive rally into Friday’s close, bolstered by an encouraging outlook on US Federal Reserve policy and a flight to safety on worries over Greek debt troubles. US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke struck a relatively hawkish tone as he said a third round of Quantitative Easing was quite unlikely; the coming week marks the formal end of the QE2 asset purchase program. The end of QE2 hardly guarantees US Dollar strength but removes significant headwinds, and the Greenback could see fundamental support in weeks and months ahead. A busy US economic calendar promises further fireworks through upcoming trade, and it will be important to watch how the US Dollar reacts to increasingly significant economic data. Markets will pay particular attention to Personal Income and Spending, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, and ISM Manufacturing data. Focus remains on whether the US economy can continue to recover and eventually prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten policy. Watch for the US Dollar to be especially sensitive to large surprises in consumer confidence figures and the employment sub-index of the ISM Manufacturing report. It is difficult to predict whether the USD will see a boost from the formal end of QE2, and one would suspect that the clearly anticipated conclusion is largely built into the current dollar exchange rate. Yet the end of asset purchases removes a hurdle in the way of a US Dollar recovery; the Fed will no longer be growing its balance sheet and aggressively increasing the supply of US Dollars. The effects of Quantitative Easing have been far-reaching, and we suspect that the end may be similarly eventful for financial markets. One potential effect is to make the US Dollar once again a safe-haven currency of choice, sparking Greenback rallies on significant turmoil across financial market. Already we’ve seen the USD bounce noticeably against the euro on the real risk of a Greek debt default and broader euro zone instability. Yet the US currency has fallen far behind other traditional safe-havens such as the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. The end of fresh Quantitative Easing is unlikely to be a cure-all for the Dollar’s ills, but it could go a long way in boosting its attractiveness against similarly low-yielding currencies. If our hypothesis is correct, watch for the US Dollar’s correlation to equity markets and broader financial market risk sentiment to strengthen through the near term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s continued losses have coincided with rallies in our own Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index. If stocks continue their recent slide into the final week of QE2, watch for the previously-downtrodden US Dollar to stage a further reversal. - DR

To: elmatador who wrote (75661)	6/25/2011 3:51:09 PM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219802

Father Wen proudly proclaiming they've whipped inflation while at the same time powers that be attempting to knock down the commodities prices which were the one thing stimulated by QE2...which ends this next week . Along with the Saudis always signalling they will per/usual fill in any gaps for oil demand regardless of any Opec decisions ...for they have Iran squarely insight . In the next & last post for the the day here will post a synopsis of the current state of the Iran, Saudi, Afghanistan, Pakistan ongoing saga with the underlaying designs & conflicts present as Iran is also having a "summit meeting on international terrorism" this weekend to attended by the Pak President & Affy's Karzai . Note the timing of this Iranian summit just at a time when the friction between Affys & the US have surfaced into public domain . The Iranians trying desperately to establish a regional block of her own influence with the Paks & Affys . Does one get the feeling that so much of this has been scripted long before into the end of QE2 which was successful in one thing ...that of driving commodities higher & substantially negating all the gains in equities ?

To: elmatador who wrote (75661)	6/25/2011 4:57:02 PM
From: 2MAR$	Respond to of 219802

Fidelity Holding $110 Billion Europe Secs...Buy China, PM Says; Insider Traders Beware; blogs.forbes.com Here’s your weekend reading assignment. Time necessary: 35 minutes. 1. I was shocked to see Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on the Financial Times op-ed page promising to have China “reinforce the global recovery.” Oh yes, and stating flatly that China has beaten off the ravages of 5.5% inflation. Writes Wen, “China has made capping price rises the priority of macroeconomic regulation and introduced a host of targeted policies. These have worked. The overall price level is within a controllable range.” Have you ever seen a nation’s political leader send a clear signal to the stock market like; “We are fully capable of sustaining steady and fast economic growth.” A MUST! 2. Then, there’s Jim Grant’s Interest Rate Observer doing a first-rate breakthrough piece on to what the extent the biggest household name money market funds are dangerously overweight in short term European securities– given the threat of a Greek default and rapidly falling value of sovereign and bank debt in Europe. This is another example of being exposed to the disruption in financial markets that growing every day– and as Grant writes, “The money fund industry is walking on eggshells.” Are we on the eve of another bailout of the mutual find industry? Fidelity Cash Reserves (FDRXX) holds 45% of its assets in short term European paper; Fidelity Inst. Money Mkt. (FNSXX) 49%; Fidelity Instit. Prime (FIPXX), 44%; BlackRock Liquidity (TMPXX), 42%, and Vanguard Res.Prime (VMRXX), 23%. This tale of exposure to Europe has not gained significant media exposure. Tell your friends. Call your broker. 3. Kudos to t he New Yorker’s George Packer for “A Dirty Business,” his inside narrative of the most wide-ranging insider trading case in history utilized thousands of e-mails, text messages and wiretaps to garner an amazing slew of 23 guilty pleas by scumbags all over the hedge-fund and securities industry. It is a piece of extraordinary detective work masterminded by US Attorney for the Southern District Preet Bharara, an immigrant from Asia, with the aid of the FBI and the SEC. Packed with fascinating details, it is a road-map to the way prosecutors go after the top bad guy Raj Rajaratnam, by knocking off the small fry and the medium fry one by one until they they corner the sleazy amoral bribester at the helm of the $10 billion Galleon. The bottom line: As the stock market has become dominated by hedge funds– desperate for an edge over their competitors in a tough environment for making money, insiders part with material tips for cash. But beware you weaklings, your emails, text messages and telephone conversations are going to send you away and you will be an insider– in prison.