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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (12361)	6/30/2011 1:22:11 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24231

Some number crunching on world exports by Jeff Brown.. As previously discussed, we see a clear inflection point in Global Net Exports (GNE, i.e.Top 33 Net Oil Exporters) in 2005. Following are what we show for GNE for 2002 to 2010 (oil exporters with net oil exports of 100,000 bpd or more in 2005, which account for 99% plus of global net oil exports): Note that GNE increased at about 5%/year from 2002 to 2005: 2002: 39.1 mbpd 2003: 41.6 2004: 44.8 2005: 45.5 At the 2002 to 2005 rate of increase, GNE would have been at about 59 mbpd in 2010, but let's look at what actually happened: 2006: 45.5 mbpd? 2007: 44.6 2008: 44.5 2009: 42.3 2010: 42.6 (BP + Minor EIA data, total petroleum liquids) I suspect that this inflection point was quite a shock to oil importing countries, especially developed oil importing countries. The gap between what the import market was "expecting" at the 2002 to 2005 rate of increase and what we actually saw was about 16 mbpd in 2010. The difference between GNE and Chindia’s imports is what I define as Available Net Oil Exports (ANE), i.e., GNE not consumed by Chindia. As you can see, ANE fell from 40.4 mbpd in 2005 to 35.1 mbpd in 2010: GNE - Chindia's Net Oil Imports = ANE 2002: 39.1 - 3.5 = 35.6 mbpd 2003: 41.6 - 4.0 = 37.6? 2004: 44.8 - 5.1 = 39.7? 2005: 45.5 - 5.1 = 40.4 ?2006: 45.5 - 5.5 = 40.0? 2007: 44.6 - 6.1 = 38.5? 2008: 44.5 - 6.4 = 38.1? 2009: 42.3 - 6.9 = 35.4 2010: 42.6 – 7.5 = 35.1 (BP + Minor EIA data, total petroleum liquids) Note that ANE in 2010, 35.1 mbpd, were below ANE in 2002, 35.6 mbpd. In other words, the supply of global net oil exports that were available to oil importers other than China & India in 2010 was below the supply of net oil exports available to oil importers other than China & India in 2002--and of course it was well below what was available in 2005. A plausible estimate is that ANE will be down to between 27 to 30 mbpd by 2015. Obviously, this analysis does not support the popular misconception that generally rising oil price are solely due to “Speculation.” It also goes along way toward explaining the IEA’s decision to release emergency oil supplies. While US crude inventories are fine, the WSJ reported that European commercial crude oil inventories are at five year lows, and I think that the IEA was quite concerned about supply versus demand problems in the fourth quarter (at current oil prices). The problem that the developed countries are facing of course is that given a continued decline in ANE, after the release of emergency crude oil supplies, then what? Do they keep depleting emergency crude supplies? Incidentally, one of the little quirks of "Net Export Math" is that the rate of increase in net oil exports tends to exceed the rate of increase in production on the way up, but given a production decline, the rate of decline in net oil exports tends to exceed the rate of decline in production. For example, production by the Top 33 net oil exporting countries increased at 4.6%/year from 2002 to 2005, but their net oil exports increased at 5.1%/year over the same time frame. From 2005 to 2010, the Top 33 showed a very slight production decline, going from production of 62.2 mbpd in 2005 to 61.9 mbpd in 2010, but their net exports fell at 1.3%/year. Their consumption to production (C/P) ratio increased from 27% in 2005 to 31% in 2010. At this rate of increase in the C/P ratio, the top 33 would collectively approach zero net oil exports some time around 2050. However, based on multiple case histories, and assuming about 45 years of post-2005 net oil exports, the top 33 probably will have shipped about half of their post-2005 CNE (Cumulative Net Exports) by the end of 2020. westexas on June 29, 2011 - 7:50am theoildrum.com