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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Post-Crash Index-Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (28052)	7/6/2011 12:57:47 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 119362

You know eternal doom and gloom always finds the smoking gun but we can flip that too....hah commodities crash, low rates continue for years to come and the real economy booms in a few more years as discussion moves away from shadow inventory and austerity to all the great new innovations and drivers slowly taking hold sort of like what happened in 1994-97 but magnified by a multiple of TEN. The smoking guns are your favorite party and the debt ceiling as well as oil prices IMHO

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (28052)	7/6/2011 1:42:39 PM
From: Horgad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 119362

"Think replacement cost might be the thing to "give"?" It hardly seems possible. Yes, copper and maybe even oil could drop significantly, but cement, lumber, labor, city hook-up fees? It doesn't seem likely. But the million dollar question is still how long will it take to work the extra capacity out of the system. Right now people are building and moving into apartment buildings. That isn't exactly helping the housing market. Of course, that trend will likely reverse rapidly once jobs and loans become available again. But that could be years or even a decades away depending on how far the gov. and the FED drag us down. As for buying cheap and renting it out, I don't see and reason to wait (just don't count on appreciation). Might have to deal with increased odds of tenants going bad because of the uncertain job market, but people have to live somewhere when they can't own a home. You just have to convince some potential apartment dwellers that they would be better off renting a house. It should not be that hard...