To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (76076 ) 7/7/2011 12:52:50 PM From: elmatador Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 219657 Latin America safe from Europe’s debt crisis, Nomura says Posted by Joseph Cotterill on Jul 07 16:31. It’s a shame the internet doesn’t do smell-o-vision, as there’s a rich, warm waft of historical irony hanging over this post. It’s about Latin America being secure from Europe’s debt troubles, especially in terms of its exposure to Spanish banks should they go under. Veteran readers will remember that Spanish banks had a bit of trouble in the region’s own debt crisis in the early 2000s. Mostly Argentina, where they played the role French banks have been saddled with with Greece in the early 2010s, right up to leading on efforts at “voluntary” debt restructuring. But Brazil in 2002 was also a pretty hairy place in the wake of Argentina’s default, with the biggest IMF bailout in history (at that point) needed to help stabilise the real. Well it’s all rather different now. According to Nomura’s FX analysts Benito Berber and George Lei: It is more likely that LatAm helps stabilize BBVA and Santander in the event that they run into trouble in Europe, rather than these banks destabilizing LatAm. Roughly 45% of BBVA and Santander profits come from LatAm (Figures 2 & 3 [above, click to enlarge]). Therefore it is unlikely that these banks reduce their exposure in the region since that would seriously limit their growth prospects. However, we are concerned with extreme situations where capital repatriation from LatAm to Madrid is critical for the survival of the banks. In such a scenario, since local subsidiaries (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru) cannot reduce capital reserves below a certain level, we assume these subsidiaries would only lower their capital reserves up to one standard deviation above the legal minimum, to prevent potentially violating any regulatory requirements during periods of heightened volatility. We estimate the maximum potential capital repatriation amounts to US$28bn. This number seems low compared to the total amount of international reserves, which for these five economies amounts to US$505 bn. Therefore, even in the extreme case requiring recapitalization of the parent banks using LatAm funds as a source, we believe the impact on the respective currencies would be marginal. For example, Santander could repatriate $21bn from its Brazil operations, engaging about 7 per cent of the country’s reserves (which are much, much bigger than the $3bn held in its coffers back in 2002). Mexico is even better off with perhaps no more than 4 per cent of its reserves at threat of BBVA and Santander pulling money the other way. This isn’t to say that the Brazilian real couldn’t blow up under its own steam — for example the consumer credit mountain, which is clearly waiting to detonate quite savagely, and the heavy flows of foreign money into Brazilian assets which could suddenly reverse. But it simply underlines how small a problem Europe, or Spain, is towards the region. But still a country needing the biggest IMF bailout ever after its supposedly small and unimportant neighbour violently defaults? Brazil 2002 – Spain 2012? Not sure. We know that Brazil pulled through of course.