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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (8293)	11/17/1997 3:12:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

I noticed that too, Barbara (the emotion). Lots of upward spikes like this are to be expected from a market that has done nothing but recover from downturns for fifteen years straight. Or possibly even for 23 years. It's a dying brontosaurus--and remember that those things had more than one brain so the reflex twitches can go on a long, long time. They used to say that if you killed a snake it didn't really die until sundown. Just don't get in the way and get whopped by the tail. Of course my complacency partly results from an eagerness to get my hands on more money to put into BEARX--and BEARX is going to be somewhat cheaper at the end of the day unless things turn around. I am somewhat disappointed in the market today. I was fully prepared to be bored to death, and I am only somewhat bored. Am especially interested in the behavior of the 30-year treasury. It remains to be seen if the flight to quality can compete with any selling the Japanese might do. My own recipe for Japan would be simply to print money. Inflate and the hell with it. Let the Yen sink by 25% and let the Japanese admit that they are not as rich as they thought they were ten years ago. Americans endured the unendurable of buying compact cars in the 1980s to replace those chrome-covered dragons that got 12 miles to the gallon.

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (8293)	11/17/1997 4:09:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18056

Barbara and all: Re. emotions, the fear of missing out from possible further gains causes stocks to rise sharply. At the same time, the buyers have to be aggressive. I can't objectively assess the emotions behind today's sharp rise but I will give it a shot. 1. Sellers are showing the "fear" of missing out further gains. 2. Short-term and aggressive traders and some scared bears have done some aggressive buying. Now, if group 2 becomes fewer and fewer in numbers, the "fear" changes hands. The buyers will then be afraid that the prices will fall and hence they will demand cheaper prices. The trading volume often indicates this. Also, remember this - we are at a stage in the market when seemingly insignificant or unimportant news causes tremendous rise (or fall) in prices. I think we have seen that today. From what I learnt, it is a sell signal. -Mohan