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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (43241)7/10/2011 1:21:50 AM
From: armi  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78478
 
I haven't been following SI,

What is the general consensus on tech, namely HPQ, BBY and CSCO?

The ship is slowly sailing on MSFT, STX and WD.

What chinese stocks is everyone looking at? HOGS? I don't really understand that one, they're in negative cash flow. Why is it so interesting to many?



To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (43241)7/10/2011 9:51:28 AM
From: Dale Baker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78478
 
What is your shopping list of cheap tech stocks, and which market cap range appeals most?



To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (43241)7/10/2011 10:19:44 AM
From: Grantcw  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78478
 
Hello Jurgis,

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm glad that other value managers are experiencing under performance also. At least I feel like I'm tracking with someone. :)

To your other points, I have reached a little on some growth prospects (mostly small cap biotechs), but those have done reasonably well compared to my value stocks. I'm still sticking with a value focused portfolio and not trying to switch styles too much.

With Gold, I won a lot of GDXJ, and I've tried to play this a little more conservatively these days by writing covered calls each month on it and trying to get 3-5% premiums on those calls. I feel better about doing this than just being entirely long gold stocks as I agree about the valuations. But, I also want to hold a decent chunk of gold with the fiscal environment we have.

I've trimmed my oil but I still own several plays. I'm not quite sure how to play oil these days. On one hand, I want to be in oil companies as I see the price of oil in general increasing over the next 2-3 years, but on the other hand, these companies don't generate a ton of cash as they continue to invest in future oil production to replace their older production.

I'm not putting any more money into Chinese stock plays. I've been a bit burned on 3 now, not a big deal, but enough to teach me.

I'm putting a lot of my portfolio in tech stock values - mostly CSCO, HPQ, GLW, RIMM and MSFT. I'm happy to put more into these as long as they don't bounce much from here.

Going back to your #3, I tend to think that my best plays are made after a serious stock market correction and that if I could find a closed-end fund that paid 6-8% for me to wait for a correction (and then not fall with the correction), I would put a good percentage of my portfolio into that and just wait. But, I'm not sure if such an investment exists. Maybe I could get 6-8% with preferred's, corporate bonds, or mortgages, but all of those crashed in the last crash also. So, given the rate environment, I'm again just buying these cheap tech stocks and hoping in a correction they wouldn't fall much more.

Thanks for all of your thoughts...

-Grant



To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (43241)7/10/2011 2:38:51 PM
From: Spekulatius  Respond to of 78478
 
Jurgis,good post,IMO. A few comments:
While gold can be valued with production cost,IMO. Sure it differs quite a bit,but my guess is that the mean production cost is probably no higher than 500$for the largest mines. High gold prices will encourage high cost production, so this is a moving target.

I also see a style shift away from value investing, and that includes sometimes myself.