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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (52723)	7/11/2011 4:26:47 PM
From: Sam	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95622

A smattering of opinions on Intel's earnings, slated for next Wed. July 11, 2011, 3:40 PM ET.Intel, Et Al.: Muted PCs, Emerging Devices, The Street Takes Stock.OVTI, BRCM: Second-Half iPhone Demand Promising, Says Lazard By Tiernan Ray blogs.barrons.com Folks, Intel (INTC) will report earnings next week, on Wednesday, July 20th, after the bell, and the analysts have a variety of things they’re expecting to start to play out in Q3 and full-year forecasts as Intel and the rest of the semi business start to talk. Here’s just a taste of some of the views published today on the matter. Gary Mobley, The Benchmark Company: “Buyers and distributors of semiconductors have started to deplete inventory,” but, “consensus revenue and EPS estimates for semiconductor device companies, on average, need to come down little more. Also, while buyers and distributors of semiconductors started to deplete chip inventory during 2Q11, we believe the inventory depletion will last through the end of 3Q11. The CY11 revenue growth expectation for semiconductor device companies, on average, is 10.5%. However, we believe global semiconductor device industry revenue should grow only 5% to 10% during CY11. Most third-party research firms such as Gartner and IDC believe the chip industry should grow only 5% during CY11.” Gus Richard, Piper Jaffray: “We believe the PC technology treadmill is grinding to a halt, slowing PC semi revenue growth. While this is likely not a surprise to investors, evidence of this mounts as the PC ecosystem continues to come under pressure and demands migration to the smartphone/tablet markets. Increasingly, we believe this will create a challenge for Intel. However, other segments of the market will benefit from the shift. The most obvious beneficiary is QCOM as it is uniquely positioned with a leadership position in baseband modems as well as a strong position in application processors. We believe FSL is positioned to benefit as a leader in embedded processors. We also believe FSL has strong design win momentum and a robust product pipeline that is likely to drive better than expected growth.” Srini Pajjuri, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets: “We believe Q2 tracked inline for most of our coverage universe, but expect mixed Q3 outlooks. Demand trends are mixed at best and back-toschool builds appear fairly subdued. Supply-chain inventories have been high for the past few quarters and we suspect have edged up again in Q2. Valuations are discounting the risk to estimates to some extent, but stocks could remain range-bound until order trends stabilize, which could take 2-3 quarters.” Vijay Rakesh, Sterne Agee: “We believe Japan has substantially come back on line, relieving shortage issues and increasing channel component supply. The increased inventory could be a drag on some OEMs as noted by recent commentary from Taiwanese Assembly and Test (A&T) providers suggesting the inventory correction could be complete in late C3Q11. We believe PCs have tracked relatively flat for C2Q, which is in line with seasonal expectations, and we believe C3Q11 is looking at muted growth of +8-10%, compared to our previous outlook of +10-15%. The new iPhone in C3Q11 and a new iPad in 2H11 should be a tailwind. We also believe the Samsung Galaxy S2 smartphone has been the #1 selling smartphone in the U.K., and it is expected to launch in the U.S. in mid July. We believe tablets from multiple OEMs, which for the most part got pushed out from C2Q11 to C3Q11, especially the HP Touchpad, Amazon Coyote-Hollywood, and Acer Iconia are all expected to increase OEM/Component builds in C3Q11. Most Tablet builds are expected to be flat to up q/q in C3Q11 after a hiccup in C2Q11 prompted by the iPad2 launch and pricing.”

To: Sam who wrote (52723)	7/11/2011 5:17:30 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95622

It looks like the market in AH is really after punishing NVLS for their reduced Bookings. Of course, more often than not, when earnings are announced stock selloffs occur.

To: Sam who wrote (52723)	7/11/2011 6:54:09 PM
From: FJB	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95622

CEO and chairman Richard Hill told analysts on a conference call that chip making customers are becoming more cautious about the outlook for their business, and that some orders for equipment may be pushed out from 2011 to 2012. Bookings this quarter may decline from Q2 by as much as 20% from Q2's level, after declining 25% last quarter, said Hill: I have visited our top six customers. In each case we have been given a cautious tone and a feeling of uncertainty on the part of each of those customers. It’s no surprise given the recent reports of the economic data closer to our business, the person simply negatively forecast single-digit growth in PC units, coupled with lower volumes for smart phones and forecast for the remainder of the year are causing our customers to be more cautious. Given this uncertainty our customers have warned us, they could curtail our capital expansion plan. Factory utilization rates have declined to slightly below seasonal levels and contract prices were both DRAM and NAND are forecast is to decline in Q3, on the heels of the weak PC and smartphone demand. With weaker near-term outgrowth growth in our industry could trend for the midpoint of our forecasted range of 10 to 20% for 2011