Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (52751)	7/12/2011 11:55:17 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 95383

One solution would be to devalue the dollar by 50%. That would cause exports to surge and bring in a lot of tourists and investors. Imports would decline and many jobs would be created. This solution is much better than cutting spending and putting the country once again in a recession. The dollar is being gradually devalued anyway. The difference is if you did something dramatic now, the U.S. economy would be revitalized. Don’t worry; devaluation by 50% isn’t likely to happen anytime soon. There is no leader or political will to force it through. And he says that the central bankers have lost touch with reality?! We would have roaring inflation if that happened. On the other hand, it isn't possible the way things are structured right now. It isn't a matter of leaders or political will, it is a matter of economics and the size of the currency exchanges.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (52751)	7/15/2011 1:36:28 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	3 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95383

re Maturing of Semis/Equips: 1. I've been thinking this a while. It's why I constructed my "Tech Dividend Portfolio": INTC, LLTC, KLAC, XLNX, AMAT, TSM, TXN, COHU Message 27451146 compare it to my "Semi Growth Portfolio" : Message 27206121 AIXG in LED equip ALTR in programmable logic ARMH in SOC ASML in lithography CYMI in lasers KLAC in metrology KLIC in bonding equip LRCX in etch VECO in LED equip XLNX in programmable logic 2. Companies like QCOM, MSFT, and CSCO don't make either list, because they are big and mature enough to pay a dividend like INTC, but their management is insufficiently investor-friendly. Their cash flow tends to get wasted (= not returned to shareholders) via failed acquisitions, failed attempts to enter new markets, or employee stock options. They are too big to be likely to grow (either the company or the stock) much in the future. I would rather hold XOM (Exxon) or KMB (Kimberly-Clark) than QCOM or CSCO. 3. In a maturing industry, investor-friendly management is an absolute requirement for any long-term investment. An investor-unfriendly management can ruin any stock, no matter how many other positives a company has. It doesn't matter how well they grow sales, profits, or cash, if none of it flows to shareholders. 4. Semi-equips are just as cyclical as they always have been. The last downcycle was as nasty as any in the history of this industry. Has everyone forgotten, that semi-equip bookings troughed at 246M$ in March 2009? Where is the evidence that capex won't be as wildly cyclical in the future, as it's been in the recent past? 5. Cycle tops are marked by investors thinking: corporate managements can predict the future (better than they ever have before) and therefore high semi capacity utilization is now permanent pricing power is permanent severe over- and under-capacity will never happen again, and profit margins will remain high forever 6. The S&P500 has been in a horizontal channel since 1997, and we are now near the top of that channel. The double tops of 2000 and 2007, and the double bottoms of 2002 and 2009, define the channel. Therefore: 7. Short-term trading, of semi-equips or anything else, should have a bias towards shorting rather than going long, till the next recession trough. Longer-term long positions should be fully hedged or sold. 8. I can't predict the future either, so everything above could be wrong, and I must never forget the long tails of the bell-shaped curve.