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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (76324)	7/13/2011 10:24:03 AM
From: carranza2	1 Recommendation Respond to of 218068

The Force is with us. I was convinced that Euro and its zone would have significant problems, and saw Simon Johnson's piece on Italy about a week ago, but concluded that things would not play out per script until at least a couple of months had passed.....I was wrong, things are falling apart a lot faster than I thought. When this happens, the speed-up in things, it is time to take golden cover. Johnson's piece is significant for (1) he is honest; (2) he is former chief economist for the IMF so he knows; and he is of the opinion that US contagion is likely. He has recommended that US banks stop paying dividends to get ready for the upcoming direness. I cannot imagine a more potent warning, unless it came from The Almighty Father of All That Is Dark And Terrible. baselinescenario.com I figure, in line with this, that CDS on Italy were written willy-nilly with not a care in the world, certainly not with the so-called prudence the counter-parties (probably) acted in connection with Greece and the other more obvious Greco-Mediterraneo-Gaelic wastrels. So, these c/ps are now sweating bullets. Italy is a gray swan which is getting darker. PS: The miners are exploding to the upside. I got the following via PM from a kind correspondent to whom I am very grateful. As a result, have added the Gold/XAU ratio to the toolkit with the other two sure-fire predictors, 10 year real rates and MZM growth. The ratio is very bullish and we are seeing the jump it predicts. Read carefully: seekingalpha.com