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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (43353)	7/17/2011 12:42:35 PM
From: AnthonyD	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78634

Hi There Madharry, I am in your camp with regards to silver. Like you, I urged my family to buy silver around $11 in vain. I think there are significant demand drivers for silver; sentiment, industrial applications, looming silver shortage. I remember hearing that silver demand/usage can be interpreted as a herald of forth coming good or bad economies. It may indicate the level of industrial activity similar to the way transports are suppose to represent economic activity. As far as how I conducted my research, I used mainly SEC filings of large miners like BHP form 20F. I looked at some smaller miners, however I found the information a bit lacking. I tried to be conservative and restricted myself to "proven reserves" I used the companies average extraction rate in a straight line manner against the proven reserves. The pattern that emerged was similar among several companies of varying sizes. I am embarrassed to say, I can't find my file with the hard numbers. I was hoping to provide you with more detail. I want to share my information, with the hope that I could contribute in a positive way to the conversation. The hype, as I see it, is coming from Vloggers, and others claiming silver will go as high as $2000 - $10000 an ounce. Sites like "National Inflation Association", who made tens of thousands or possibly hundreds of thousands aware of gold and silver, run slick "fear porn" videos on Youtube. The founder and brains behind NIA is the youngest convicted pumper dumper(16yo at the time): Jonathan Lebed. Through a recent falling out with a former confederate (George of "Survive and Thrive Youtube channel) it came to light than young Mr Lebed was making approximately $50000 a day in his pump and dump operations. He has become more sophisticated in his legal arrangements in the current incarnation of his business. At-any-rate, Mr Lebed seems to be using and creating interest in gold and silver to lead the naive; ultimately parting them from there money in unwise investments. Mr Lebel isn't the only ringmaster out there. What worries me is the number of people have piled into silver with out doing the most cursory of research. I am still positive on silver for the long term. My timing may be off, however the nature of supply and demand indicates appreciation of silver prices continuing into the distant horizon. I have to say I am a novice at this. I am trying to learn value investing, and I feel that I have much MUCH to learn. That is why I am here. I have limited resources such that it effects the quality of my information, however I try to find 2 or 3 corroborating data points. I am working on a couple of companies as value plays. I think I will be able to post something soon for the value investing board's critique.