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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (640)	11/17/1997 11:18:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 29970

You are implying that you know where it's going. You buy wherever it is when you get the conviction that it is cheap. As to what point in the discovery process you are, your guess is as good as mine because that information doesn't exist and therefore is unknowable.In a dip the price is going down.Do you want to buy something that is getting cheaper? No, you'll wait for it to reverse. Others are watching too.They want to do the same. You all rush in and guess what? You end up buying at the top! So accept that. If that is a major top then you have poor judgement of value. Maybe this isn't the game for you. I'm saying that you shouldn't be concerned about today's price. You should be concerned with tomorrow's value. By value I don't mean low multiple stocks. They have low multiples because they don't have growth prospects. Why hold a stock whose company offers no growth in company worth? You might as well hold Long Treasuries. The purpose of buying stock is to make money. You put the odds on your side when you put your dough into something that has prospects for prosperity. When you sell a growing company for idiot reasons like you got three points on a $20 stock in a bull market, you are shooting yourself in the foot. E.g. you buy 10,000 TCOMA at 20 and sell today at 23 because AB comes out and says, "we're reducing our rating because the stock has gone up". Then it goes to 50 with you watching with cash, or worse, being clever and shorting because it is clearly over-valued. In an investment club you must understand that decisions have social constraints. You may have to buy a total loser because somebody in the club likes the CEO's hairdo. Even though the stock loses big, you have to make this kind of concession. Investment is a loner's game, not a decision by committee game. So application of disciplined procedures often can't be practiced.If the group wants to buy on dips, whatever that means, you gotta buy on dips. You tell me. You think XYZ is worth 35. If it breaks out at 25 should you go in and buy even though it might back off on you? But how do I know its worth 35? Homework. Guts. Knowledge. Experience. AND you never do until it gets there and you got 10,000 for a cool 100 G's profit. Thus, the issue is not what traders, Wall Streeters, and the crowd believes as reflected in today's price, but what you and the others in the club believe about future value.You have the same chance as the greatest expert that ever lived. The club members have to spend time digging up pertinent info as to what XYZ will be worth. Then you argue fundamentals. For you, monitor companies that are in a base. Do your homework. Watch 20 companies. Don't diversify. Buy a few when fndamentals are developing. Fundamentals have to look somewhat bad. After all, it is in a base. TCOMA is a good example. Even I fell into the dumbelism of "this company has too much debt". That is the smokescreen that keeps the untutored out. But you can see that with a little luck, this company could really do a phoenix. Note also that this isn't some obscure OTC number. Let ahhaha befool himself into that kind of "I'm so clever" trap. Size isn't so important as change of rational expectations. I have used TCOMA but that doesn't mean you should go buy it. Why not? You haven't done your homework. You might miss it. So what. There are always better ideas out there. You find 'em. Bon chance.