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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (76897)	7/26/2011 2:28:18 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 218641

I am already well into TBT, too early, as always. But can always add more. I wish I had some charts or tables showing the rise of interest rates in various countries as inflation increased. Maybe I can find some.

To: carranza2 who wrote (76897)	7/26/2011 2:47:51 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 218641

For US only and for last 70 years only. The inflation of the 1940s was largely the result of lifting price controls.

To: carranza2 who wrote (76897)	7/26/2011 3:08:58 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 218641

Here is a chart of interest rates and inflation in Canada. Kind of hard to read. But what you can see is that negative real interest rates (which we have now) seem usually to be promptly followed by a jump in inflation. Bernanke is better at doing things than he is at predicting things. He has said he will raise interest rates when inflation becomes apparent. That would automatically depress the price of bonds, especially the longer ones. I know this is all ABC economics but economic illiteracy is pretty common at all levels of government.

To: carranza2 who wrote (76897)	7/26/2011 8:41:15 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 218641

Any deficit ceiling should also act as support for outstanding US Treasuries since it suggests that there will be limits on new debt issuance (yeah, right).. Right now the market's looking at least for $1 Trillion in new debt issuance.. With Obama's plan, it will be 3 tiimes that amount. And if the Tea Party members get their way, we'll see even fewer Treasuries being supplied to the market. Have to do some research, but I'm curious how much of our debt is in short term 1-5 year maturities versus 10 and 30 year. Again, I wouldn't have so much problem with the government being the "borrower of last resort" and giving depositor money a place to hide, IF THAT MONEY were INVESTED in long-term ROI projects, worker retraining and retention, and R&D, rather than squandered on pork barrel spending. We clearly don't need a negative interest rate environment. But for the life of me I don't know where all the stimulus spending created any value. The BIGGEST entitlement reform would be to have those without jobs, but receiving benefits, provided jobs working infrastructure. etc, so they maintain their job skills and self-respect, and the taxpayer gets an ROI for money provided. Hawk