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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (154614)	7/29/2011 3:41:17 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206107

re Islamic revolutions: Unfortunately, that's likely to be true. The driving force for social unrest everywhere, is not a demand for democracy. Americans might wish that were true, but it's just wishful thinking. The driving force is economic. Specifically, it's high food and fuel costs, which push marginalized people to desperate solutions. And high food and fuel costs aren't going to get better, anytime soon. Absent a global recession, oil will stay at or above $100/b. Further, throughout the Muslim world, radical Islam has positioned itself as the leading alternative to the status quo, and the champion of Muslim nationalism. The other alternatives are disorganized and/or have little popular support. I wish this weren't true, but it is. So, most likely, we will see more governments overthrown. All the new regimes will be more Islamic than existing governments. Some of them will be in oil-producing nations, and some of them will be rabidly anti-American. We will see more nations fragmenting along ethnic/religious/tribal lines, like Somalia and Libya have. Given our track record in Afghanistan and Iraq, U.S. military intervention just speeds up this process of national disintegration. Again, I wish this weren't true, but I don't see anything likely to stop this trend. For investors, it means there are major risks out there, not yet in stock prices. Wait for them to be on the front pages, before taking any new long positions. disclosure: as I've been since April, I am mostly cash, with a modest short position (in semi-equips and solar).

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (154614)	7/31/2011 1:41:46 PM
From: Dennis Roth	Respond to of 206107

Arab Rulers Expect Revolutionary Ramadan OnIslam & News Agencies Sunday, 31 July 2011 12:47 onislam.net Struggling against tyrant regimes, revolutionists in Libya, Syria and Yemen have been anticipating the beginning of the holy month. DUBAI – As masses of revolutionary Arabs prepare for a different Ramadan this year, the holy fasting month is not equally welcomed by their rulers who are bracing for more tensions amid a wave of unprecedented uprisings sweeping the region. "Throughout history, Ramadan has been the month of revolutions and victory," Abdullah al-Amadi, director of the Qatar-based Islamic website Islamonline, told Agence France Presse (AFP) on Saturday, July 30. "I think it will inspire the youths of the Arab Spring to complete their struggles against injustice and tyranny," he said. Struggling against tyrant regimes, revolutionists in Libya, Syria and Yemen have been anticipating the beginning of the holy month next Monday, August 1. Going out in major protests after Friday prayers, the weekly Syrian protests have managed to mobilize people over the past four months of anti-Assad regime protests. In Ramadan, protest organizers hope it would be easier to gather people after breakfast in their mosque gatherings for tarawih night prayers, performed only in Ramadan. Rumors that Syrian protesters were planning daily nightly protests after Tarawih prayers were worrying security forces who could face seven Fridays every week. The news was confirmed by Syrian cyber activists on the Facebook group The Syrian Revolution 2011, calling for protests every night until dawn. "The regime is afraid of Ramadan and the Taraweeh prayers," it wrote. In Yemen, a Ramadan of Change was anticipated by protesters for the first time without President Ali Abdullah Saleh, currently in Saudi Arabia after being wounded in an explosion. Saleh was wounded in the blast at his palace compound on June 3, and was flown the next day for treatment in Riyadh where he is still convalescing. Camping out at a square in the Yemeni capital Sanaa since February, protesters say they are determined to revive their movement during Ramadan. "This will be the month of change, especially since Ali Abdullah Saleh is not in Yemen," said Walid al-Omari, an activist from Yemen's "Youth Revolution" group. [snip]