SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: James Peter DeGreef who wrote (3268)11/18/1997 1:24:00 AM
From: Al Gutkin  Respond to of 10227
 
Jim: You are taking your life in your hands, I know first hand!

Jim I started here the same way as you, however, I was kicked, beat up, sent into outer space, put on permanent ignore, then told to get he heck outta here. Suddenly I came to my senses. I invested in the company, why bag on it, makes me look like the fool that everyone thought I was. Now for a brief kinder gentler answer, I'm sure you will get more later from others.

From a pure accounting standpoint, you make good points, the same points I made months ago. I also thought the competition would come from Sat communication. However, sat communication cannot compete for various reasons too numerous to mention, and the smaller wireless companies are disorganized and rely on old fashioned technology. It should be mentioned that the valuation of a wireless communication company is not determined by analysis of financials, it it determined by number of users, projected revenues, licenses, cash flow potential, and the question does the product work? Nextel is the largest and most organized wireless provider in the World. yea, it has junk bonds, preferred stock that pays 13% interest, but on the other hand, it has communication experts, stock analyists, stock brokers, tech monsters, and McCaw mesmorized and behind the company.

I guess it really doesn't matter that the radios work, even though they do. If you want to make money, you came to the right place!

Regards:

Money making Al (sometimes)



To: James Peter DeGreef who wrote (3268)11/18/1997 2:12:00 AM
From: laleh  Respond to of 10227
 
James, simply put direct connect, no roaming charges. That's why they're hot.



To: James Peter DeGreef who wrote (3268)11/18/1997 10:05:00 AM
From: Tavros  Respond to of 10227
 
Jimbob,

A proper answer to your question would require that you go back, as much as 1-1/2 year, and read the material that has been posted on this thread. However, I will attempt to give you a list of key points that summarize the NXTL story (at least in my head).

1. The telecom industry is booming and is expect to continue to do so in the foreseable future.

2. The wireless part of telecom is also one of the fastest (if not THE fastest) growing segment of the telecom industry.

3. Like in any other business, you put in the basic ingredients and you get out revenues. In the wireless business, the key ingredients are spectrum, capital and service (features you are offering).

4. Spectrum is important because it is the medium through which the messages are transmitted. In the wireless world you have cellular, digital and satelite systems, reflecting respectively, the old world, the current emerging world, and the future. NXTL's iDEN is digital. The importance of this categorization is how effectively the spectrum is utilized and the extent you can reprocess the information. Cellular is reaching the limits of the spectrum capacity, digital represents much better utilization, and satelite is on a category of its own (because it can reach widely from high up). Again, keep in mind that spectrum, is an important determinant of success in this business, being the equivalent of "real estate". NXTL is THE ONLY wireless company with a nationswide collection of sprectrum licenses. Most importantly, it has at least 1-year headstart in the build-out vis-a-vis the competition.

5. The wireless business is vry capital intensive in the initial stages. Imagine all the towers that one needs to build to establish a network. This is where all this money is going currently and this is why NXTL is borrowing all this money. As to the cost, it reflects the inherent business risk which, naturally is highar than that of, say, ATT, but so is the potential reward. Once the infrastructure is in place, then the business becomes a cashcow assuming you execute correctly in your business strategy (revunues, minus selling and admin costs, minus depreciation, minus interest costs). In this respect, NXTL is no different than any other wireless except with one exception; it is backed ith some "strong hands" in the busines in the name of McCaw and Motorola.

6. However, it is the third ingredient that differentiates NXTL, namely service and features. Its strategy is not being all things to all people but, highly focusing on the mobile workforce that need to be in the move yet in touch with each other. A combination of highly focused marketing strategy along with a set of unique features (direct connect) has given NXTL a head start vis-a-vis the competition and the initial results provide evidence that the strategy is working.

So, if I stop here and summarize, I find myself putting my money with a company, in one of the fastest growing industries, with a head-start over competition, a great asset (spectrum), a differentiating product, and a shrewd marketing strategy. ANd what I expect is continuation of the build-up (with the associated expense), continuation of the marketing startegy, and, at some point, positive cashflow (in 1998) positive (earnings in 1999), and continued earnings growth going forward. There are several IFs here, but if weren't any, NXTL would sell at much higher price as a growing annuity. This is why I am willing to pay the current price.

I hope tha above helps

Tavros



To: James Peter DeGreef who wrote (3268)11/18/1997 11:17:00 AM
From: Arnie Doolittle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
 
Jimbob, here's all you need to know about NXTL: STARTUP. Mark it well, and measure everything you learn about the company against that fact. Look at the industry, consider NXTL's place in the biz, evaluate NXTL's likelihood of success, and then make your investment decision: To buy or not to buy. Me? I haven't seen a better long term opportunity in the last five years. Some would disagree and suggest that they have found equal or better opps in prior years. Maybe but they're not looking through the same investment prism as I am.

There's been much recent discussion on this thread about fundos, emotions, etc. but that's all short term noise. The real story is STARTUP and the resultant uncertainty while the story develops. And that's exactly why the opportunity exists. Many look at the fundos, say "Stinko!" and move on. They'll be back and I'll sell my stock to them at 100 or better 2-5 years hence.

If you want something to focus on, watch customer adds. Analysts are publicly reluctant to predict bold growth for the 4th quarter but not me. My projection is 400,000+. How many over remains to be seen but even at 400k, they're movin' and shakin'. Midway through the 2nd qtr., 1998, NXTL will exceed 2,000,000 digital customers, beating their public statements by 4 months or more.

Arnie