To: James Peter DeGreef who wrote (3268 ) 11/18/1997 10:05:00 AM From: Tavros Respond to of 10227
Jimbob, A proper answer to your question would require that you go back, as much as 1-1/2 year, and read the material that has been posted on this thread. However, I will attempt to give you a list of key points that summarize the NXTL story (at least in my head). 1. The telecom industry is booming and is expect to continue to do so in the foreseable future. 2. The wireless part of telecom is also one of the fastest (if not THE fastest) growing segment of the telecom industry. 3. Like in any other business, you put in the basic ingredients and you get out revenues. In the wireless business, the key ingredients are spectrum, capital and service (features you are offering). 4. Spectrum is important because it is the medium through which the messages are transmitted. In the wireless world you have cellular, digital and satelite systems, reflecting respectively, the old world, the current emerging world, and the future. NXTL's iDEN is digital. The importance of this categorization is how effectively the spectrum is utilized and the extent you can reprocess the information. Cellular is reaching the limits of the spectrum capacity, digital represents much better utilization, and satelite is on a category of its own (because it can reach widely from high up). Again, keep in mind that spectrum, is an important determinant of success in this business, being the equivalent of "real estate". NXTL is THE ONLY wireless company with a nationswide collection of sprectrum licenses. Most importantly, it has at least 1-year headstart in the build-out vis-a-vis the competition. 5. The wireless business is vry capital intensive in the initial stages. Imagine all the towers that one needs to build to establish a network. This is where all this money is going currently and this is why NXTL is borrowing all this money. As to the cost, it reflects the inherent business risk which, naturally is highar than that of, say, ATT, but so is the potential reward. Once the infrastructure is in place, then the business becomes a cashcow assuming you execute correctly in your business strategy (revunues, minus selling and admin costs, minus depreciation, minus interest costs). In this respect, NXTL is no different than any other wireless except with one exception; it is backed ith some "strong hands" in the busines in the name of McCaw and Motorola. 6. However, it is the third ingredient that differentiates NXTL, namely service and features. Its strategy is not being all things to all people but, highly focusing on the mobile workforce that need to be in the move yet in touch with each other. A combination of highly focused marketing strategy along with a set of unique features (direct connect) has given NXTL a head start vis-a-vis the competition and the initial results provide evidence that the strategy is working. So, if I stop here and summarize, I find myself putting my money with a company, in one of the fastest growing industries, with a head-start over competition, a great asset (spectrum), a differentiating product, and a shrewd marketing strategy. ANd what I expect is continuation of the build-up (with the associated expense), continuation of the marketing startegy, and, at some point, positive cashflow (in 1998) positive (earnings in 1999), and continued earnings growth going forward. There are several IFs here, but if weren't any, NXTL would sell at much higher price as a growing annuity. This is why I am willing to pay the current price. I hope tha above helps Tavros