whenever i am confused by data overload i do a tallying, and here i go, tallying (check out jack's new walking shoes :0)
gold negatives, in order of probabilities at this time
(i) constriction of credit up and down the feeding chain due to usa govt bond re-rated / perceived as "not risk-free" causing drubbing of all risks, triggering margin calls and such follow-on, impacting all leveraged, ... => gold down
(ii) forced sale of sovereign gold as each heavily debt-ed sovereign line up to be taken against the wall => gold down
(iii) legal restrictions on gold ownership across wastrel lands => gold down
(iv) earnest move by enough sovereigns (and the empire to commit empire-suicide) to raise interest rate into real positive territory, and concurrently sincere moves to balance budget => game-over gold
(v) discovery on way to turn pig iron into 9999 gold => game-over gold
i believe (i) - (iv) shall happen in the course of the next 7-15 years, but only (i) is an immediate possibility before end of the coming week.
... and so, as i look out the window, i am somewhat short term cautious even as i am as good as all-in with barely capacity for one last double. i am at my all-time high watermark in terms of troys and taels.
(momentarily concerned, jack discovers balcony window - opened door on own, now gauging my reaction)
gold positives, in no particular order of probabilities, as i cannot be certain how the smarties, the agile, the scoundrels, and the cretins are thinking in the collective sense
smarties:
(i) whatever happens, the warning is up, that usa govt debt is not risk-free, and must hold less, far less of the cr@p, going forward
(ii) whatever happens, the usd / euro empires shall resist own respective demise, and would repeatedly tee-up qe's until hyper inflation followed by diaper deflation
(iii) at some juncture france shall be seen as wearing no clothing, and eventually germany shall be tee-ed up to line against the wall
(iv) as japanese yen floats upward helplessly, pressed by beijing purchase of japanese debt instruments with usd, japan shall print anew with rejuvenated vigor
(v) china has 3 tril and more each day to accelerate the purchase of all that is good, in order to save the planet, and the purchases would be welcomed by the recipients as each wish to stay afloat, even it involves monetary union with the new sovereign
at some juncture, china shall engage with usa company shares, and such would be welcomed, even as it may involve re-domicile of hq's and primary listings, especially if the primary listings can be shifted to british common law space named london stock exchange should lse surrender self to hk stock exchange
let us watch n brief that drama Message 27520912
(vi) the hk commodity exchange ramping up and takes hold of global price discovery, and the storage facilities all up and down china coast starts filling up, as directed by china materials bureau
let us watch that drama Message 27520911
(vii) can mention the wars and counter-wars in detail but shall not bother
(viii) forced sale of sovereign gold as each heavily debt-ed sovereign line up to be taken against the wall, but such triggering the call-back of leased gold, and all hell breaks loose => gold way up
(ix) constriction of credit up and down the feeding chain due to usa govt bond re-rated / perceived as "not risk-free" causing drubbing of all risks, triggering margin calls and such follow-on, impacting all leveraged, ... followed by conviction re qe3 ... qeN => gold way up
(x) legal restrictions on gold ownership across wastrel lands, making gold in freedom lands more desired than ever, but only in exchange for very good things => gold way up
(xi) earnest move by enough sovereigns (and the empire to commit empire-suicide) to raise interest rate into real positive territory, and concurrently sincere moves to balance budget ... all asset hell breaks loose, cities burn, riots, martial laws => gold way up
agile:
(i) gold can tank before resuming rise
scoundrels:
(i) paper gold shorts must and shall crush physical gold goodness
cretins:
(i) soon-to-be economic recovery shall send gold to savage hell
(ii) the next potus, chosen by way of by the people for the people against other people per rule by making up more rules shall somehow miraculously save the world
above about sum up my take, and i am of the strong faith that one fine day, when we of the strong faith wake from happy nap, we shall smile broadly, knowing that we are the chosen for our strong and unwavering conviction, that gold is not a faith metal, but a political metal
besides,
(i) gold, like mcd, fcx, abx, paas, remx, nly, ... sil, slv, gdx ... aud, cad, ... is a china play, but also a china-play that hedges against all the other china-plays
(ii) platinum hedges against gold
and
(iii) silver enhances gold
in the mean time, let us see if we can game the cloud-atm paper extraction of free money to fund another load of physical conviction ;0)
and why not, one for the road, for our families, for that is our duty.
so, am generally ignoring the downside for the short term and basically focusing on what must eventually be. |
