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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Starlight who wrote (9970)	11/18/1997 8:58:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Betty - Please, this board would be much improved if you didn't make a personal jab at me every time you want to disagree with something I say. I'm happy to be corrected as to facts, or to be contradicted as to opinions, but I (like most people) get offended when it is personal in tone. I haven't been following this for a little while. The last word I had is that IBM was examining both 248nm DUV and XRL (using a stepper from SVG) for a possible future 1 gigabyte fab. techweb.cmp.com I assume from what you say that you know for a fact that IBM is installing a synchrotron in the new fab and has ordered, or plans to order, a number of x-ray steppers, probably from SAL. This is indeed interesting news and would not bode well for Cymer in the long term. Although IBM's production numbers do not make them a leading player in terms of how much semi equipment they purchase, the building of a next-generation fab with XRL would provide the necessary "first line". This would give XRL a big boost, since volume manufacturers would very much prefer not to go first, paying for a full fab without knowing what bugs might pop up in the transition from one-bay R&D technology to a working production line. Also, the math in your post to Tulvio was a little confusing. Let me sum up what I got from it. A synchrotron costs about $25 million but provides light for a number of steppers. JMAR's point source only costs $2MM for a stand-alone unit. Leaving aside any possible performance differences, a synchotron does not make economic sense unless a facility installs at least 12 XRL steppers in a building. If this is not what you were saying, please respond.

To: Starlight who wrote (9970)	11/18/1997 11:50:00 AM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Considering the cost of the new IBM fab., it's likely that it is somewhere between a pilot project and full mass production. I doubt if IBM expects great early results since they are trying 2 new technologies at one time (x ray and copper ), another indication that this is really a trial project.They are going to build DRAM, not projects critical to their business plan. It seems to me that of the alternate technologies (ion beam, electron beam, x-ray) that x-ray is the worst candidate because it lacks a charge, and thus can't be focused. As the wavelegth shrinks deeper into the UVL part of the electromagnetic spectrum, it will run into the same problem as x rays, a lens tends to absorb the beam rather than bend (focus)it. However in the case of deep UVL this problem is possibly solvable by using mirrors rather than lenses. So far industry leaders have not been able to come to a consensus about what will replace UVL, and/or when this will happen. Your guess is as good as mine. I don't think anyone can be sure at this early stage. I do appreciate your input. The price action on CYMI recently indicates that the market doesn't have a high opinion of the outlook for Cymer.