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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (23870)	11/18/1997 2:15:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 61433

pass, i really think the tax loss selling is overblown as a cause for asnd's price erosion. people are no longer enthralled with limitless growth. it isn't hear. however, asnd can continue to grow at an excellent clip and should appreciate. $80 is ridiculous and $40 is expensive right now. in one year $40 might be fair value. we'll have to see...

To: pass pass who wrote (23870)	11/18/1997 2:24:00 AM
From: Inga	Respond to of 61433

I am no longer a great fan or believer of TA. TA may work wonderfully for predictable stocks (such as XON) which have a predictable trend and fairly stable trading range. A stock which has random price patterns like ASND is caused by too many unexpected external factors and therefore render most if not all TA methods ineffective. The fatal assumption of all TA algorithms is to use the past data history to predict the future. Unfortunately, the future cannot be predicted based on past events correctly with more more than 80% certainty (best case) or 50% certainty (worst case). In the worst case the odds are the same as playing a one-shot Russian roulette. A lot of experienced traders got burned being influenced by TA prediction of more than 80% certainty. Remember the Dow 500-point drop in two days which wiped out some professionally well-managed funds. Remember the Cabletron CS drop of 15-point in one day.I am sure there is NO TA package in our lifetime which can predict those events. I only use TA now and then to help remind me some of the past problem patterns to be on the defensive side rather than using it as an instrument to predict price movement. A friend of mine who is not technical and misinterpreted badly the TA recommendations of the package she bought came out to be a big winner with WDC when it skyrocketed to 54. She felt both scared and hillarious when I pointed out the obvious errors in her interpretation. Pure luck I guess. Good luck with all of our investments in Ascend. Lanny Dao