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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sixty2nds who wrote (18875)	8/3/2011 10:03:33 AM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 24758

What about a substantial drop in the price of oil? Two different commodities which have no money connection. In any case a drop in oil would mean the mentioned indirect deflation mechanism was roaring and that would mean a roaring POG. Sure the odds are long against. True. POO has now stabilized, come to a new Ahhaha Equilibrium around 95. I still think it will rise gradually to something like 140. The question though is when. Such a prediction is useless without when. Ahhaha Uncertainty: Must know amplitude and time frame, but this knowing is impossible. 12 months ago the odds were long on current interest rate policy lasting this long... If you go back on this thread, you'll find I claimed it was the expectation. As long as Demolitionism is in place FED won't be able to open Temporary. Wouldn't it damage the image/psyche of old yeller? Interest rates can advance substantially without any impact on gold. Depends upon whether FED feeds the rising rate with money so it doesn't rise too much which would induce recession. They see this counter intelligent approach as complying with Dual Mandate. More to the point, they couldn't cause the people to suffer by withholding money. Then the gold miners become more attractive... For the most part the miners are hopeless. They always dilute the equity. costs drop faster than POG. Hah! Doesn't work that way. ...causes an indirect deflation... I agree. It's somewhat abstract, but it's critical to understand this mechanism. It's important to understand that the market state that existed in gold from 2005 to 2010 which was only a process to get total demand and supply of gold in balance now has morphed into a store of value process. This is the so-called "investment" period, (read speculative) where moves in gold have to preserve the nominal value, the conversion rate, of dollar. DM is destroying your demand deposits.