To: john wickenden who wrote (27337 ) 11/18/1997 9:34:00 AM From: Walt Holberg Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35569
To all: Positive comments on gold price from James Blanchard. This is from a 4-page supplement included with Elaine Garzarelli's latest newsletter: Blanchard (editor of Gold Newsletter for 26 years) says ". . . the information I have just gained is amoung the most important I have ever passed along to clients and subscribers." We all know about the aggressive shorting of gold, but Blanchard says he has learned that short positions are "ten times or more what is reported on the Comex." An even larger short position was created by "thousands of tons of gold borrowed from central bank reserves by bullion banks and sold into the market." Much of the gold is sold simply as short-sale speculation, which they are required to pay back at some point. If the price rises they must buy. Now here it gets interesting. "Until a few days ago, every player in the market believed the the cumulative amount of gold loaned by central banks was between 2500 and 3000 tons," figures reported by Gold Fields Mineral Services, and an amount that would be "manageable" while large. Blanchard says he has just received research from "the world-renowned analyst Frank Veneroso indicating that the borrowed gold is larger . . . much larger . . . than anyone suspects . . . more than 6500 tons . . . and perhaps more than 8000 tons." Just days after the Veneroso research became public knowledge, the gold lease rate soared 81%. "In recent years this has always led to a spike in gold prices." Some of Blanchard's sources are reporting fear of market chaos amoung central bankers. Blanchard says demand is huge, far larger than production, and sales of tons of accelerated gold supply are the only thing keeping the price down. "Somebody is buying all that gold," he says, and demand cannot be met without forward sales. When the lease rate reaches 3% forward sales are seriously curtailed. In 1995 it reached 5% and the price of gold went to $414. The lease rate has recently gone to 4%. This means the market is already tight now, even before the usual year-end rise. He advises increasing holdings now, especially old coins. This can only help IPM through the remander of the year. Regards to all (longs and friends only, not shorts) Walt