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Microcap & Penny Stocks : VLVT (was CSMA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Smith who wrote (766)	11/18/1997 9:49:00 AM
From: Steven Durrington	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11708

Warning : The following contains rampant speculation and predictions, and some rough mathematics. Soooooooo, to try and figure out your question about how high is CSMA reasonably expected to go ? Well, for starters, I would use a PE of about 15:1 - this gives a return on shares of about 7%, which equals or exceeds bonds,most regular bank accounts and most real estate rental properties. Not too inaccurate, with current PE's in the Dow averaging around 20. I would assume that the significant amount of liquid assets that CSMA has (read : ca$h) would not be used to pay out dividends, but will be sunk back into oil exploration, upgrading the disposal well and expanding operations in the other subsidaries. So, I won't count that. CO&G, LPS and Adhatters financial info will be released on or about Dec 1st. Multiply earnings per share there by 15 for starters. (+) news expected. The Utah disposal well is expected to charge around $20, +/- a few dollars. It requires minimal upgrading for class V classification, and is currently profitable at a charge of around $0.70/barrel. So if 7500 barrels are disposed of daily at $20, then we're talking of about around $30,000,000 a year into about 15,000,000 shares...i.e. $2 a share minimum to add to the above. Then there's the sale of the Uinta property for "an undisclosed amount of shares and cash" from ERHC. This property sits on 52 million barrels of oil, and must be worth in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Now figuring that the company got less than 100% of the value, but got a reasonable amount, that will add to earnings if ERHC does well, or if CSMA cashes the shares in early. If payments occur over 8 months, then it can't be exactly chicken feed, now can it ? Even 10% of the property's value is a goodly sized chunk. Once again, Dec 1st should tell all. The unprofitable aspects of CSMA are being shedded. Expectations are of a "modest" yearly profit, but with strong 4th quarter earnings. CSMA cleaned up its act mid-year, and has turned the corner towards success again. If we are to assume that the 4th quarter is indicative of future trends with this company, could we take 4th quarter's profit, add at least $2 per share to it, factor in the ERHC deal, and multiply the whole damn thing by 15 ??? Perhaps the 4th quarter will be unusual because of the Uinta sale, but will this be regarded as a one time amount and not be factored into the earnings as such ? Does this mean that CSMA is expecting a modest profit without a 1 time addition, and that the 4th quarter really does see a turnaround from selling off losers and concentrating on the winning aspects of its business ? * Warning : Really Speculative here * I get an answer of AT LEAST $30 a share, assuming that my above suppositions are close to the mark. That's from 15:1 PE with at least $2/share earnings. Please correct and/or enlighten me if I'm wrong, as I'm relatively new to the Stockmarket and appreciate more experienced poeples' advice. I'm not hyping.... just trying seriously to put a figure on the future potential of this great little company. Your input, comments and flames are most welcome. I'll read them tomorrow when I get into work (where my computer is). Good night, and talk to you all in the morning. Regards, Durro