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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harry Larson who wrote (6030)	11/18/1997 10:20:00 AM
From: The Duke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

>>If you do the division with the precise amount $17.37 as reported by AOL to analysts in the earnings conference call, you get 8.3 million. As pespective, this says that average paying subs in Q4 was less than the 8.6 million subs with which AOL said it began the quarter. Why would we use the $17.37 figure? Why should we figure this is the average revenue per PAYING sub? Since AOL charges for many additional services, and the up front charge is 19.95, its hard for me to believe that there are any more than (SubcriberRevenue)/60 many legitimate, paying subsribers. This comes out to 7.2 million. If there were any more than that, there would have to be a large number of real subsribers getting monthly bills substantially lower than $20. I dont buy this. Even if i did buy this, it would imply that if some customers are paying $20 a month and some are paying $10 month, then 2.2 million of them must be paying the $10. ((2.2)10+(6.1)20)/8.3= 17.37 That means that of the 8.3 million paying subs, only 6.1 are logging in more than the few hours a week one can get for the 10 dollar rate. Not exactly great for advertisers, since these people must just be checking their email quickly and loging off.