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Non-Tech : Alternative energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: brokenst0nes who wrote (11460)	8/8/2011 6:22:56 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 16955

<consider buying into TAN directly?> short answer: no long answer: The solar industry is immature. It is at a stage where there are many new companies, and many technologies being tried. As the industry matures, there will be a few winners, and many losers. Many of the companies in TAN I expect to go bankrupt. For example, SPWRA has pre-announced gross margins of 3% for 2Q11. Today's low margins (for SPWRA and everyone else) could continue through the end of 2012. No company can survive on gross margins of 3%. I predict TOT will eventually write off their SPWRA investment. Other companies have immense debts. Others are high-cost producers being killed by low-cost producers they can never catch up with. I've decided the low-cost Chinese cell/module manufacturers, and FSLR, are the best bet to be survivors. We are at the beginning of a vicious industry shakeout. very long answer: see my posts going back a year, linked backward from my TAN chart post, especially Message 26495563