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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred Rhodes who wrote (43803)	8/9/2011 4:47:13 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78486

Welcome to the thread, Fred Rhodes. I'm pulling stocks to buy from a watch list I maintain and from my current holdings, also from the new lows lists, from brokerage firms that provide research screens, from AAII screens, and from ideas other people on SI offer. Regarding Terra Nitrogen: Fwiw, I hold a few shares of CF. I've given up my YARIY.pk shares today though. They reported lower than expected earnings in July; apparently they're in drought areas, and farmers just aren't planting enough. Perhaps YARIY.pk might be a buy on the expectation the next growing season will be better. I decided if I am going to wait for a turn-around in the ag business, I'd rather wait with a domestic company, and with a company that's less complicated to me than something like YARIY. Terra too complicated for me to figure also. Fwiw, I raised my position in SENEA today. (Seneca Foods Corporation engages in the production and distribution of processed fruits and vegetables, frozen vegetables, and other food products in the United States.) finance.yahoo.com I like SENEA based on stated book value (bv). It's had steadily rising bv since '02, and in good times should sell again at .95-1.00x. Stated bv (per Yahoo) is $28.93/sh. The stock closed at $22.35.

To: Fred Rhodes who wrote (43803)	8/9/2011 11:16:53 PM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78486

>>What else should I do, and where else should I look, when searching for and evaluating value stocks?<< Here is what I do: 1) I follow several investing threads. I get many of the best ideas from other posters. 2) I use screener every once in a while. I also work a lot with yahoo finance even though they work hard on making it less and less useful. 3) I identify themes or sectors I want to be invested in and then try to find stocks to buy - anywhere in the world (Japan, Europe, US etc.) 4) I try to find special situation and invest in stocks that are beating down due to temporary impairments 5) I keep an eye or two on macro. I think psychological contrianism is OK but can be dangerous. Contemplate the following situation - you are in a fully occupied movie theater near the exit door and someone cries "FIRE!". You think that there is no fire (but you cannot be totally sure too since the theater is fairly dark. Now what are you going to do - in this case the best thing is often to run for the exit. Why- if you are correct and there is no, you may still get overrun by the crowd that tries to run for the exit. if you are not correct and there is a fire, you are better of running too. This is simplified of course, but I as an investor always like to think that I am the guy close to the exit - my position are small, relative to daily volume so I can sell or buy at market almost as I wish. The big institutional investors cannot do that - their positions are too large. So, if you think that there may be a calamity (the debt ceiling was a rather good example because it was visible to everyone, it is a good idea to step aside in many cases. I did follow my own thinking but not enough <g>. I also think that GLD is a similar thing, just in reverse - you are betting on a panic that may entice people to buy Gold. However at this point it is a Momo play and an mature one at that - just remember that when somebody cries fire (or SELL GOLD!).