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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (41104)	8/10/2011 10:41:33 AM
From: carranza2	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71456

Rogoff called for QE to be announced yesterday....don't have a clue as to why he would be so brave as to go out on that limb. Bad for his credibility. Nonetheless, I glanced at his work with Carmen Reinhart, It's Different This Time, and thought it was an accurate historical document. It's lesson is simple: after the burst of a credit bubble, history shows that it takes a very long time to get back to baseline. OK, not a particularly brilliant insight, but seems OK, despite the lack of a convincing explanation for the mechanism for this phenomenon. I expect it has to do with lowered demand due to deleveraging, but at the end of the day, who cares if they cannot provide convincing whys and wherefores. It is what it is. Calling for inflation in the midst of the deleveraging caused by a burst credit bubble sounds foolish to me, akin to asking for water to walk to you. Demand inflation is out of the question because of deleveraging. No one wants to buy stuff. Unemployment, too, precludes it. So he is in effect asking for the fed to stuff the channels with cash. It has already done that. And the corporations' vaults are full of cash, too. I suppose Rogoff never heard of a liquidity trap. Seems to be where we are at. All my speculation, of course. At the end of the day, we have no influence on events. We are surrounded by randomness, and need to take care of our microworld. I reiterate my thinking: we are all clueless. No one knows what is going to happen. The thing to do therefore is to build a staunch system of protection. Gold and cash serve marvelously. Minters of golden money, the miners, deserve our attention, too, but only the very best and the best managed. That damned prickly Taleb has it right. Along with Faber and Rogers. The rest is all male bovine manure. The stock markets, don't make me laugh. Value plays, mo-mo, you name it, it is all crap. And the policymakers are insane, IMO. From Greenspan, Bernanke, down to the fools on Capitol Hill, they are driven by greed and ambition.