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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53171)8/24/2011 7:20:01 PM
From: Jacob Snyder2 Recommendations  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95383
 
AMAT chart, prediction, and buy plan:

Prediction: AMAT hits 8$, before end-2012, and at least 16$ on the next upcycle.

The chart tells us, what the last 2 earnings seasons have been saying: the top is in, and the trend is down. Fundamentals and TA agree.

The bottom will be, approximately:
1. after RSI on weekly chart goes below 30
2. not before the stock is at least cut in half, from the previous cycle high (16.93$ in March 2011). This always happens, every cycle.
3. when rallies stop failing at the 10wma (=50dma)
4. MACD crossover
5. when I am scared to buy, scared to even look at my portfolio, almost too scared to think (that's why I need a plan, because it's difficult to think clearly at those times).

Plan: Wait. Keep waiting. Load up at 8$, sell half when it hits 16$, hold the rest forever (while collecting steadily growing dividends).