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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rsie who wrote (6212)	8/10/2011 1:31:18 PM
From: DD™	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10065

There was no retest of the bear-market low in 2009. A V-shaped recovery ensued, following the 3/09 lows. stockcharts.com DD

To: rsie who wrote (6212)	8/10/2011 8:39:45 PM
From: marc ultra	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10065

I think I recall at least one clear standard bottom put in that wasn't tested though I forget when. March 2009 is an interesting situation I thought a lot about and I personally don't consider it a normal untested bottom situation. I say that because it was looking like a re-run of the 2000-2003 bear where we bottomed in Oct 2002 and then had the spectacular retest in March 2003 from which we doubled. So in 2008 we bottomed in Nov I believe at around 741 looking at that chart and it looked to me we were heading for a very similar retest in March 2009. Then, as it looked like we were putting in that final retest, we had a final bear raid on the financials by the shorts causing panic and quickly plunging us down to the final bottom of 666 from which we started the massive bull once again doubling as we did off the 2003 retest. So I think that last plunge to 666 was more about the repeal of the uptick rule and CDSs allowing for one last free shot on the short side ruining the retest of the Oct lows. IMO one can reasonably argue Doug Kass has already been proven wrong thinking we were off to the races with no retest after the 1119 bottom set Mon 8/8 as we already had an initial test of the bottom today. We dropped to 1118 just before the close and held finishing at 1120. If it's all very short-term testing though I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and I certainly hope we're both right that the bottom was put in. Also we had an intraday low of 1101 in the immediate post-Fed sell-off so I'm calling the area of the correction bottom as the 1101-1119 area and I think the odds are in favor of a final retest coming most likely in the Oct-Nov timeframe. In the meantime we'll be in this turbulence and testing process. That said I find it very hard to wait around for a final retest which Bob tends to prefer before declaring all in..