Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcyhuang who wrote (53234)	8/14/2011 4:52:13 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95536

<SOX Has Bottome> Is that a ST or LT call? That is, do you think last week's lows will hold for next week, next year, or next decade? Also, your chart doesn't support your conclusion. The chart shows, not a test of the lower Bollinger Band, but a failure. That's what happens when volatility spikes. I wouldn't expect Bollinger Bands to be useful predictors, when the VIX is over 40. Not saying you're wrong. I'm just not following your logic.

To: pcyhuang who wrote (53234)	8/26/2011 10:05:42 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95536

re SOX has bottomed on Aug 9: I was sceptical, but so far you are right. We set a lower low on the 19th, but the two lows were so close, I'd call it a double bottom. Now, the interesting question is: how long will the recent lows (on the SOX, SPX, Nas) hold? This is just a re-statement of a question we've been talking about for a while on this board: Is the recent dip: 1. a correction in a continuing cyclical bull market, similar to mid-2010, or 2. the start of a bear market? The fundamentals say the SOX goes sideways or lower. That's based on my reading of a lot of 1Q11 and 2Q11 earnings reports and conference calls, in tech companies. About the only event capable of changing that, would be QE3 (I'll cover any shorts, and go long KLIC, MU, NFLX the day that's announced). Till that happens, I think the SOX will drift sideways for a while, or even move up to the 200dma (now at 417). But I'll make a prediction as specific as yours: For the rest of 2011, the 200dma will be a resistance line for the SOX (and a good place to short). (For you, I added Bollingers. Enjoy.) Not much volume in AMAT, as the price going ever lower. That $16.93 in March was a multi-year high:

To: pcyhuang who wrote (53234)	9/18/2011 2:07:29 AM
From: pcyhuang	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95536

SOX's Double Breakout The recent ABSOLUTE price breakout of the SOX has special significance, because it is accompanied by a RELATIVE price breakout vs. the S&P500. Source: Stockcharts.com

To: pcyhuang who wrote (53234)	2/9/2012 8:22:30 AM
From: pcyhuang	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

What Are the Industrials and Transports Suggesting? After a 100 point up move in the SOX since our pick of its bottom in Aug. 2011 , it is particularly relevant to take a close notice of the following article: What Are the Industrials and Transports Suggesting? By Barry Ritholtz - February 8th, 2012, 7:00AM Dow Theory — a study of the relationship between the Industrials and the Transports — are suggesting a potential inflection point is nearing. A move above 12,900 in the Dow Industrials would surpass the April 2011 highs, and the bulls would like to see that confirmed by the Trannies getting over 5630. As we see from the indices via The Chart Store below, both the Industrials & Trannies are on the verge of that breakout. Just note that Classic Technical analysis requires you wait for the breakout/breakdown confirmation, rather than anticipate it. Caveat: I am not a Dow Theorist, and this is a grossly oversimplified explanation. For more details, Wikipedia has an excellent primer on the major tenets of Dow Theory. Or check out Richard Russell’s The History of the Dow Theory. > Click to enlarge: ˜˜˜ Source: The Chart Store