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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53250)	8/14/2011 10:28:11 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95572

A closer look at the 2009 Bottom: Jacob, hit control + to make the charts big enough to read clearly. Every additional control + on your keyboard will make the page and the charts bigger. Understanding the importance of each chart is something that only comes with practice. Even with the charts no one can time a market bottom with exact precision but that's why I say watch for the Investors Intelligence Poll to show more Bears than Bulls. New data is shared every Wednesday but not until after the market is open for a while: schaeffersresearch.com From InvestmentHouse: Bulls versus Bears: This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher. Bulls: 47.2% versus 46.3%. Bulls bouncing, heading back toward 49.5% hit three weeks back. Holding higher even in the turmoil, perhaps seeing the selling as overdone. This, however, a contrary indicator and if they are not scared out then it is not working in terms of an upside advance. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Bears: 23.7% versus 24.7%. Wrong way as well, falling versus rising in the turmoil. Still up from the 21.5% three weeks back and still off the July high near 28%. The 35% level is considered bullish for the market overall. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history. Also even more importantly don't expect a market bottom to form until you see a 90% upside day. We have already had two 90% downside days. According to Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Reports Inc. “These two events – panic selling (one or more 90% Downside Days) and panic buying (a 90% Upside Day, or on rare occasions, two back-to back 80% Upside Days) – produce very powerful probabilities that a major trend reversal has begun, and that the market’s Sweet Spot is ready to be savored.” You can read the full details of Paul’s, Charles H. Dow Award winning research paper “ IDENTIFYING BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS AND NEW BULL MARKETS “ I follow that information here: finance.yahoo.com All we know so far is that the market is a better buy now than in April. Will it get cheaper? I think so. Should an investor scale in like you are talking about doing? I believe that would be ideal as even with all the information I have shared we won't know when the real bottom is here until it is in the rear view mirror. RtS

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53250)	8/14/2011 11:12:23 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95572

At the 2002 Bottom you will see the lower highs again on the $VIX at the actual bottom in October and its retest in March of 2003. Also noted is the importance of volume at the actual bottoms. When a bottom takes place it does so on higher volume than the previous days selling. In time this will show up on the weekly charts and the monthly ones as well. A higher volume up week than the previous week's selling and a higher volume up month than the previous month's selling is common as well. RtS