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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (53258)	8/15/2011 12:32:52 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95579

Thanks, Don, for the chart and all the work that went into it. Changes in earnings estimates are a lagging indicator (or even a random indicator) because: 1. Macro events affect stock prices as much as anything industry-specific. For instance, the run-up from 9/2010 to 2/2011 was due to QE2. 2. Stocks react instantly to important macro or industry events; analyst earnings estimates don't. 3. Analysts tend to be linear short-term thinkers; that is, they usually assume, in their calculations, that the future can be predicted by a linear extrapolation of recent trends; this means they usually miss the change in trend. Negative results are useful; they tell us what we shouldn't be paying attention to.