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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greg nus who wrote (26049)	11/18/1997 2:47:00 PM
From: Charlie Tuna	Respond to of 1583507

Greg,Look forward instead of backward.In the next few years the winning technology will become clear.will it be cable modems or xdsl or both or neither.Who will provide VPN's and E-Commerce? What exciting new software apps that take advantage of this new infastucture will appear.It is a time of a major transition from a disconnected home to a connected home.Back when the pc began to take hold the BIG issue was MainFrame(IBM) vs the mini computer mfgs(the 7 Dwarfs )....turned out to be a non issue both lost big time and the real winners were some of the pc players,msft,cpq,intc but on the other hand look at apple so even if you were looking forward you may have bet on the wrong company but at least you would have been in the right game.My point is right now there are no clear winners @home or cisco or ascend or bay or sun or rbocs or world com but what does not come to mind are intc or msft or dell or cpq these are todays version of ibm and the 7 dwarfs they represent the cpu/os centric world of the past .....intel vs amd and cyrix/ nsm ...... Having said all of this what does one do short term ? Look for a good exit point, for instance with amd sometime in the next year with a little luck they should get back into the 30's and intel will fool em big time for at least another year with the pII bs which of course really hurts amd.As far as nsm/cyrix the nsm ceo seems to have better vision and they may really do well with the systems on a chip approach but it still is not the real next big opportunity/growth or at least it is just at the commodity end of it.So with the overall market risk and the technology transition risk I would be working on moving to a very secure cash position while at the same time patiently waiting for the next technology transition to unfold. Charlie