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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jas cooper who wrote (4118)	11/18/1997 6:34:00 PM
From: Vanni Resta	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7841

jas cooper: This is not meant to be a flame. But your interpretation of the meaning of analysts estimates is completely wrong. They are not confirmations of known, short-term trends. They are the front wave of public news about long-term trends analysts just uncovered. And they usually uncover those trends way before anyone else. And you set up a straw man argument here. We are not talking about a penny less, but about a 50% to 100% reduction in estimates. You can infer one heck of a lot from that. Yes, business trends are hard to call. But there is no analogy with weather forecasting. Analysts' forecasts are much more accurate. Haven't you guys started to notice a trend here? Every time I come in here with negative revisions, the value of these DD stocks lose a lot of their value afterwards. Don't you let your own observation of the world teach you things sometimes? Anyway, you can believe what you want, I don't care. I just thought it was important to set the record straight. Happy Investing! Vanni

To: jas cooper who wrote (4118)	11/19/1997 1:21:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7841

I'm out. Just put in a market sell order for all my SEG. Based on the latest news, it will probably gap down. I will sell at near the lowest price of the year. But I think there is now very little chance of any bounce before the end of the year. I can't think of anything good that might happen near-term to nudge the price up evan to 28. Fund managers are going to want SEG out of their portfolios. If I want to use SEG losses to offset other gains, now is probably as good a time as any, and I have to do it in the next 6 weeks, or not at all. What the company just said is that the restructuring (and charges for it) has just begun. The earliest time that good news (or evan just an end to bad news) could occur is the earnings report after the next one. This brings us out to April 1998. Between then and now, there will probably be an opportunity to buy back the shares I'm now selling, for about the same price. Seagate is a survivor in a brutally cyclical industry. It will eventually bounce back. However, "eventually" has now receded to far into the future for me. Here's the mistakes I made, and hopefully will not repeat: 1. not buying a franchise. 2. not being able to quickly admit that I was wrong, and cut my losses. When the price went below what I thought was a hard floor, and didn't bounce right back, I should have sold emmediately. I kept on saying "this has got to be the bottom". I could have gotten out at 30. Oh, well. Live and learn. The other 3 stocks in my portfolio went through stock splits this year, and are up nicely(25-60%).