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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (43979)	8/17/2011 12:04:35 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78683

I disagree with your "clownbuck" thesis, but I don't see a point in discussing this, since I won't persuade you and you won't persuade me. ;) Macro-wise, IMHO Europe (as compared to US and China) right now is closest to a possible big shock. Greece is likely to default and kicking the can down the road only gives time for other countries to fix their issues before Greek blow-up. It's difficult to say how contagious the blow up will be. Biggest risk in US is another recession. If we get that, oil investments even at current prices will not hold up. Actually most investments won't hold up except perhaps WMT and TJX. ;) China won't be enough to keep oil and oil investments up, since decoupling is a myth and they will also slow on US recession. Overall, right now investing in stocks is based on belief in no US recession and mild crisis in Europe. Prices are lower than in spring, but macro risks are higher. I am a bull at heart, so I am tempted and trying to put money into market bit by bit, but I keep getting cash coming from various places (like closing CSR arbitrage). So overall, I don't think I lowered my cash percentage in last 10 days. Maybe that's good... :)

To: Spekulatius who wrote (43979)	10/19/2011 8:53:10 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78683

Thanks for previous opinions on MET. I decided I would start a small position. I've stepped up for a few shares today. finance.yahoo.com You've mentioned at least one issue that might bite shareholders -- deferred acquisition costs. I'm not able to comprehend the likelihood of that destroying the stock. It may very well do such. Otoh, the p/e is low, the psr is low, and p/bk is very low. Plus as you say, the company may be the gold standard in this segment. (Fwiw, I'm still holding competitors AIG, PRU.)

To: Spekulatius who wrote (43979)	11/22/2011 4:30:21 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78683

MET - followed Paul into MET (starter position). I believe it is the best US Life insurance play out there, risk adjusted. they have posted a presentation on the IR part of their website where they discuss the LT impact of lower interest rates on their earnings and balance sheet. To my knowledge, they are the first life insurer to do so. phx.corporate-ir.net Extended periods pf lower interest rates are a key business risk for life insurers, the presentation above seems to suggest that the scenarios discussed are manageable for MET. there are a couple of other presentations in MET IR website that discuss the international aspect of MET's business. I did not know that MET is very strong in Latin america, and due to Alicon now in many markets in Asia. MET is by no means a US life insurer any more.