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Gold/Mining/Energy : Blue Chip Gold Stocks HM, NEM, ASA, ABX, PDG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gold$10k who wrote (30632)	8/17/2011 9:59:18 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48092

(edit) Agree on both points. #2 is part of the reason I sold some today. Agree on the ST action. However the leaders do appear to be leading and volume, seasonality are there. I think the sentiment is going to change soon to "gold may be in a bubble, but everyone needs some." That some is still very, very small for most players (pension funds, mutual funds, most CBs). Gold is the ultimate leverage in a world that has gone leverage crazy. Long gold, short gold stocks has worked for quite a while. If anything in the gold world is a bubble it's continuing to play that trend in the IT. The next pullback in the broad market will be the tell. I suspect GDX will hold the ST lows even if the SPY makes new ST lows. World needs to walk the US Dollar lower. A new band in the range of 60-72 would in general be more beneficial for kicking the can down the road. I see downside to 1,450-1,550 worst case in the next few months. % wise far less than 2008. Dividends are a game changer. When real yields are negative and you can yield 1.5-2% on gold stock it's a no-brainer. Normally that kind of dividend doesn't matter so much, but in the this environment it's huge. We're not there yet, but we're getting close to the threshold where the dividend players (non-gold bugs) start piling in. What yield does 1800 gold equate to on NEM? Yahoo is showing 2% now. Wonder at what point it becomes 3?